Already strained by the effects of conflict in the Middle East, Asia now faces a growing risk from potentially strong El Niño conditions that could increase energy demand, reduce hydropower output, and damage agricultural production.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that causes widespread changes in wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall across the globe, News.Az reports, citing AFP.
Last week, the United Nations’ weather and climate agency said El Niño conditions could begin developing between May and July.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also indicated early signs suggest the event could be particularly strong, with some referring to it as a “super El Niño,” although scientists do not officially use that term.
Such conditions are particularly concerning for Asia, where many regions are vulnerable to the heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall shifts typically associated with the phenomenon.
El Niño disrupts normal weather patterns by shifting rainfall distribution. For example, it can divert rainfall away from countries such as Indonesia and push it over oceans instead, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires on land.
The phenomenon occurs roughly every two to seven years and is forecast using sea surface temperature changes.
“The subsurface anomaly that we’re seeing so far is pretty strong,” said Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University in Australia. He added that current patterns resemble the 1997–1998 El Niño event, which is considered one of the strongest on record.
However, he also cautioned that uncertainties remain and that an El Niño event may still not fully develop.
The 1997–1998 El Niño caused severe global impacts, including extreme drought and massive wildfires in Indonesia, which burned millions of hectares and contributed to widespread regional air pollution.
Authorities in Indonesia are already monitoring vulnerable peatland areas and warning that the country could face its lowest rainfall levels in 30 years.
These climate warnings come as Asia is already dealing with energy supply pressures and concerns over shortages of fuel, fertiliser, and other key industrial and agricultural inputs, many of which are transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway following military strikes by the United States and Israel on February 28, disrupting global fuel flows.
Energy experts warn that hotter weather will further strain electricity grids already under pressure from fuel shortages, as demand for cooling increases.
“For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities… impacting overall GDP growth,” said Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
El Niño-related drought risks also threaten countries heavily reliant on hydropower, according to Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember think tank.
She noted that most ASEAN countries depend significantly on hydropower, with Mekong region states, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia among the most vulnerable.
The risks were highlighted in 2022, when a heatwave in China caused hydropower generation in Sichuan province to drop by more than 50 percent, leading to electricity shortages that affected both households and industry.
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