S&P Global Energy has reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 barrels per day, as the U.S.–Iran war disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East and weakens demand in the second quarter, consultant Ethan Ng said on Thursday.
Global oil demand growth is now expected to shrink to 400,000 barrels per day, down significantly from a pre-war forecast of 1.1 million barrels per day, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The revised outlook reflects an expected sharp decline in oil demand in the Middle East and Asia during the second quarter, as the conflict continues to affect energy markets and trade flows.
Around 178 refineries, accounting for roughly 40% of global refining capacity, have been impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil trade.
Physical Dated Brent prices are also being constrained by a large drawdown of strategic petroleum reserves by countries including Japan and South Korea, as governments seek to manage fuel shortages.
Diesel and jet fuel markets have experienced the most significant price impacts amid tightening supply conditions and disrupted logistics.
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