Seven OPEC+ countries have reached an agreement in principle to raise oil output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day in June despite the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the group, two sources familiar with the matter said ahead of a policy meeting on Sunday, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The proposed increase is largely symbolic at this stage, as most oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been halted due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war involving Iran. The disruption caused by the conflict is having a significantly greater impact on the group’s actual output than the agreed production targets.
The planned rise is broadly in line with last month’s increase of 206,000 barrels per day, adjusted to exclude the UAE’s share.
The UAE’s unexpected announcement earlier this week that it would withdraw from OPEC+ as of May 1 suggests the group is continuing with a business-as-usual approach, one of the sources said.
Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity. The seven participating members are scheduled to hold an online meeting on Sunday.
The conflict involving Iran, which began on February 28, and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly constrained exports from key OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. Prior to the conflict, these countries were among the few within the group capable of increasing production.
Iran, a member of OPEC though not among the seven countries meeting on Sunday, has also seen its exports reduced following a U.S. blockade imposed in April.
According to an OPEC report released last month, total crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, marking a decline of 7.70 million barrels per day compared to February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia recorded the largest reductions due to export constraints. Outside the Gulf region, Russia has also cut production after infrastructure damage caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
The seven countries involved in Sunday’s meeting are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. Following the UAE’s departure, OPEC+ consists of 21 members, including Iran, although in recent years only these seven countries along with the UAE had been actively participating in monthly production decisions.
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