BY THE END of the weekend we’ll have two new TDs, one in Dublin Central and one in Galway West.
Boxes were open at 9am this morning and we still don’t have a first count declared in either constituency but complete tallies on both areas are already starting to tell us the story of what we can expect across the count.
In Dublin Central it’s looking like Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats will beat Sinn Féin into second place to win a seat. In Galway West, Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland and Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne will likely go into tomorrow in a head-to-head for the seat.
But what can we tell about it all based on what we know already?
Have the Social Democrats started a conversation about class in Ireland?
As things stand currently, it is looking like a very good day for the Social Democrats who are in prime position to win a second seat in Dublin Central for Daniel Ennis.
This should have been an easy win for Sinn Féin considering that it is party leader Mary Lou McDonald’s stomping ground, but it looks as though the party was trying to be too many things to too many people and as a result saw its vote share eaten into by the Gerry Hutch campaign on one side and the Social Democrats on the other.
A lesson from this byelection for Sinn Féin will have be that the party needs to do a better job of defining exactly what values they stand for.
One of the defining things about Daniel Ennis’s campaign was that he put a conversation about social class front and centre, something we don’t see too much of in Irish politics.
Ennis’s campaign message was simple and consistent: We need more people who speak like him and grew up like him in Leinster House.
He argued that he was a good role model for young people who grew up in Dublin’s inner city and it was an argument that has obviously resonated.
Is Micheál Martin’s leadership in danger (again)?
It’s been weeks now since the last mooted heave against the Fianna Fáil leader – on the basis of the party’s performance in these elections we must be due another, right?
Probably not.
At least, not right away.
The campaign of Fianna Fáil’s candidate in Dublin Central, John Stephens, never really took off at all. The 61-year-old, who first ran for election back in 1999, was only voted onto Dublin City Council for the first time back in 2024.
Stephens, according to the tally, secured the backing of just 4% of voters – well behind the likes of Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats and Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin.
Embarrassingly for FF, his support is also around half that of Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, who had the backing of around 11% of voters.
However, the party hasn’t held a seat here since Bertie Ahern bowed out as TD back in 2011, and was never realistically expected to do well.
— TheJournal Politics (@TJ_Politics) May 23, 2026“Let’s be honest a lot of work has to be done in Dublin Central,” Fianna Fáil minister Darragh O’Brien says as he arrives at the count centre with his party’s candidate councillor John Stephens.
It’s not been a great day for FF. Based on the tallies, Stephens is on about 4%. pic.twitter.com/G10o8M9Z97
In Galway West, again, hopes were never particularly high for a Fianna Fáil win. The party already has a sitting TD in John Connolly, who claimed the seat previously held by FF stalwart Éamon Ó Cuív in the last general election.
The decision to run 25-year-old Cillian Keane was perceived to be more about planning for the future and building name recognition then boosting the number of party TDs in the Dáil. At almost 9% in the tally, the councillor will likely be happy enough with his showing.
What does it all mean for Martin? Well, we may well see another round of grumbling in the coming days, but with the Irish presidency of the EU set to begin at the start of July, the Taoiseach’s leadership is certainly safe for now.
Cork TD James O’Connor, a frequent critic of his party leader, said as much this weekend in fact – telling RTÉ that “any debate or discussion about his position” would only harm Ireland’s standing within the EU.
(Daragh Brophy)
Independent Ireland backs up some opinion polls
Noel Thomas confirmed he would be running in the Galway West byelection the very day that Catherine Connolly was elected president and her seat became available.
A whole month before that, Independent Ireland confirmed he would be running in next general election anyway, which was anything up to four years in the future.
Why rehash this? Well because it shows that this seat was a massive target for the party and on the basis of tallies they might well get it long before that general election.
Thomas is already a sitting councillor for Independent Ireland, having previously been a Fianna Fáil councillor who fell out with the party after comments he made about immigration following a suspected arson attack on a hotel earmarked for asylum seekers.
Speaking to RTÉ after the incident, Thomas said that Ireland needed to stop taking asylum seekers, famously saying “the inn is full”.
In opinion polls Independent Ireland have been steadily growing in support, starting at 4% when Red C started tracking them two years ago to where they currently sit at 7%.
Those numbers are national numbers and don’t account for how support is concentrated in specific areas and therefore is likely to be stronger in specific constituencies, such as this one.
Throw in some generalised support for independents that Thomas might benefit from and you have a pretty powerful combination that might see Independent Ireland grow its Dáil representation from four seats to five.
(Rónán Duffy)
Sinn Féin can’t be happy and has some big questions to answer
On the face of it, the two byelection constituencies that were up for grabs would have been considered good opportunities for Sinn Féin.
One is the home of the party leader who topped the poll in the general election, and the other is the home of a senior TD who chairs a Dáil committee and who also topped the poll in the general election.
Galway West is the latter and based on the tallies the party has absolutely no chance of winning there, whereas in the home of Mary Lou McDonald the party may still be hoping to win the day but right now coming in second looks the most likely result.
Whatever the vote share is, zero from two in byelections would be a bad result for the main opposition party.
And if indeed it is the case that both byelections are won by opposition TDs and neither are Sinn Féin, there will certainly be questions that need to be asked.
“We’re very, very strong in Dublin Central” says Mary Lou McDonald as she arrives at the Galway West count centre in Salthill with Mark Lohan, Pearse Doherty and Mairéad Farrell. pic.twitter.com/191Su8CNq1
— TheJournal Politics (@TJ_Politics) May 23, 2026
The party might argue that much of Maireád Farrell’s vote in Galway West may be a personal vote, but it certainly wouldn’t have expected to poll quite so low.
They perhaps should have expected it as it’s where the TG4 poll put them a couple of weeks ago, even if the party’s candidate Mark Lohan didn’t believe it when he spoke to The Journal.
But the main disappointment will be in Dublin Central, where McDonald has already been out to defend her party’s performance and choice of Janice Boylan as the candidate.
At the moment it looks as though Sinn Féin will be beaten by a candidate of the left in Dublin Central and of the right in Galway West.
When voters wanted one thing the Social Democrats were the answer and when they wanted something else they plumped for Independent Ireland.
Sinn Féin being left standing might lead the party to reflect that trying to be everything to everybody for electoral purposes can be a risky strategy.
Look at the fuel protests where Sinn Féin attempted to be squarely on the side of the tractor men but were never able to outflank Independent Ireland who had that narrative all but sewn up.
Then only a fortnight ago when the Social Democrats tabled a bill to liberalise Ireland’s abortion laws, Sinn Féin tried to argue themselves to the middle while voting against it.
It’s not that the two instances are link to the results, but they are clear examples of the tightrope that the party has been trying to walk and how it has failed to do so this weekend at least.
(Rónán Duffy)
Will Gerry Hutch run again?
The gangland figure came close to claiming a seat in the 2024 general election, before being overtaken by Labour’s Marie Sherlock in the hunt for the fourth and final seat.
Hutch was a lot more present on the campaign trail this time around, and made a number of appearances at local events alongside other candidates – something we didn’t witness so much during his initial run.
The final tally in Dublin Central put him in fourth place, just slightly behind Janet Horner of the Greens.
Speaking this afternoon Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman said Hutch’s strong performance showed there are too many people in the constituency who feel “totally alienated” from the political system, and that politicians need to do better at delivering basic services.
It’s important to remember that this is a byelection – and in the next general election the ‘big beasts’ of the constituency, the likes of Mary Lou McDonald and Gary Gannon of the SocDems, would likely be on the ballot.
Hutch wouldn’t necessarily finish in the top four in that scenario, but he’s clearly building on his experience – and if he chose to run again, the prospect of seeing Gerry Hutch TD take his seat in the Dáil shouldn’t be written off.
(Jane Matthews)