AN OFT-REPEATED REFRAIN, uttered daily by the world’s foremost power brokers and ordinary people in the street alike, is “what will Trump do next?”
His unpredictability, his propensity for saying the outrageous and his total disregard for the customs and precedents that effectively bound his predecessors at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, combine with other factors to render theirs an entirely legitimate question. This reality is quite vexing for those of us who endeavour in vain to analyse it cogently.
The highly unusual nature of President Donald Trump’s administration was captured in a chaotic media briefing featuring the man once nicknamed “Little Marco” by the commander-in-chief of the United States military and now serving as both the US Secretary of State and acting National Security Adviser.
In addition to those demanding jobs, he apparently also assumed, at least temporarily, the role of White House Press Secretary in the absence of the combative Karoline Leavitt, who is on maternity leave.
At the press conference, Rubio’s lines included the bizarre and unexpected: “You’re not ready for my DJ name” and “I’m winging it, guys.”
Although it, again, represents a significant departure from the manner in which prior presidential spokespeople conducted themselves, some of the gathered journalists welcomed the break from the sharp ripostes of the undeniably capable Leavitt.
More shortly on the tasks allocated to Rubio, his boss’s would-be successor, but let’s examine a few major happenings at the moment for the Trump regime and their import ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The White House chess game
First, the president actually had a win at the ballot box. In Indiana, a group of Republican state legislators perpetrated the cardinal sin of voting against a redistricting plan strongly endorsed by Trump. He vowed to seek revenge, and aided by millions of dollars and volunteers drawn from around the country, he got it. Most of the dissidents lost their primaries to Trump loyalists.
His backers rejoiced. They deem the victory proof that, despite the detractors, the GOP remains their hero’s party. It does demonstrate that there is truth in this assertion. Yet it also shows that money sadly rules the roost in American politics.
Moreover, it confirms a serious problem for Republicans facing Democratic opponents. As tempted as they might be to be critical of, albeit subtly, their increasingly unpopular leader, doing so is dangerous because it could alienate his ardent devotees, upon whom they are dependent to hold onto their seats.
Second, President Trump evidently is determined to persist with his foolish attacks on Pope Leo XIV, whom he previously branded “weak on crime” and “terrible on foreign policy.” He had since charged that the Chicago-born pontiff thinks it’s a good idea for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and is endangering a lot of Catholics.
Similar to so much that he has done and said of late, this is manifestly not in Trump’s self-interest, which many of us, perhaps wrongly, believed would invariably be his sole guiding compass. He won the Catholic vote convincingly over Kamala Harris in 2024. They come from a range of ethnic backgrounds and are a vital political constituency in the US.
Irking even a fraction of them, as he undoubtedly has, may harm Republicans in the midterms. While plenty of American Catholics are so revolted by the leftward lurch of the Democrats on social issues that they will not countenance a return to what used to be their party, they could conceivably decline to tick the box for either side. The aforementioned Marco Rubio, himself a Catholic, was dispatched to meet Pope Leo in the hopes of ameliorating the situation.
The Iran ‘peace deal’
Third, and most important, is the war on Iran, arguably the biggest mistake of Trump’s tenure in office. At the time of writing, it seems – key word – that a one-page document is in circulation that could – another key word – bring about a lasting halt to the conflict. Duelling blockades continue to wreak havoc in the region and on global markets.
A considerable distance lies between the two nations’ respective positions. But the crucial point is that, whether he admits it or not, Trump is far more constrained than those negotiating on behalf of Iran. Unlike their western counterparts, they are not remotely concerned by the price of petrol, the disapproval of their citizens or the prospect of a bad election. Hence, no matter his public pronouncements, Trump wants out at this stage.
This may precipitate his agreeing to a less-than-palatable deal in order to extricate the US and get the Strait of Hormuz up and running at full tilt. The world is awaiting developments. The best-case scenario for Trump is that the war has reached its denouement; he can claim a hollow victory without too many of his adherents noticing the egg on his face, and the price of consumer items, especially gas, reduces.
Alternatively, conflict resumes, and uncertainty reigns, with further financial tumult at home and abroad in store. A mess of his own making.
The midterms loom roughly six months ahead. Because he has committed an abundance of political malpractice – a litany of unforced errors on the economy, on immigration, on foreign policy and more besides – after assembling an unprecedented coalition of supporters to pull off a feat nearly everyone thought was impossible, President Trump’s polling numbers are underwater, and his party colleagues are in trouble.
Aggregated data on RealClearPolitics.com reveals that Democrats have a five percentage point advantage in the race for control of the US Congress. A sense of buyer’s remorse is in the air, particularly among relatively non-ideological independents.
It is this pivotal cohort, not the progressives who despise Donald Trump and would thus never vote for a conservative this year, who Democrats must appeal to. But some of them still don’t get that – or refuse to get it.
Regardless, unless things improve imminently across all fronts and there is a consequent sea change in the attitudes of the American people, two theories will gain currency in anticipation of a terrible day for the GOP.
One is that President Trump simply doesn’t care how Republicans perform in the midterms and plans to govern via executive order and the bully pulpit. The other is that he and his allies will use every device at their disposal to render the election not free nor fair.
Neither is comforting.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.