After 15 years at the helm — and having taken the party from a post-crash low ebb of just 20 TDs to now being Government with 48 Dáil seats — not even Mr Martin’s greatest detractors want to see him taken out in a bloodbath, and most are hoping he will signal his intention to stand aside at the end of the year to allow a painless transition.

A detailed sample reveals that 59% (30 respondents) want to see a change of leadership immediately after Ireland's EU presidency, which means Mr Martin is safe until the end of the year.

Just two members were emphatic in their belief that Mr Martin should guide Fianna Fáil into the next general election, as is his stated intention, while one politician suggested he should stay on until after the local and European elections that are scheduled for 2029.

After a disastrous presidential election, followed by two equally bad by-elections, quiet soundings are now being made, with Jim O’Callaghan and Dara Calleary emerging as clear frontrunners to take over the leadership.

The majority of Fianna Fáil parliamentary party members that the Irish Examiner spoke to want to see this contest take place in early 2027, allowing the new leader to travel to the White House and bed in ahead of the next electoral cycle.

There is disagreement around how this might come to pass.

“He will have to be carried out,” joked one long-serving TD.

“There will be no coup at the end of the year, but people will be expecting to see by the end of the year preparation for a handover,” said a second TD.

However, another warned that “if he drives on after Christmas, someone is going to stand up against him”.

This was echoed by another member of the parliamentary party, who said: “He’s safe for the [EU] presidency. After that, you don’t know what’s going to happen. I don’t think he’s going to survive after that.”

A number conceded that they believe Mr Martin is still the strongest politician in the party, having consistently ranked as the most popular political leader in the Dáil in opinion polls up until recently, but they believe that the party needs a total refresh at the top.

One long-serving politician pointed out that “Churchill won the Second World War, but he went on to lose the election”.

'We do need a succession plan'

Another, who would be considered among those agitating for change, said: “I can look at it objectively and ask who is the best Fianna Fáil politician in the Dáil at the moment, and it’s Micheál Martin. But having said that, we do need a succession plan.”

As might be expected, many who have been elevated under Mr Martin, especially those at ministerial level, remain loyal.

“The Taoiseach has always indicated that he will lead us into the next general election, and I have no reason to doubt that. He has good judgement,” said one minister.

However, another was more blunt, joking that they would support him as long as he is in office because “he gave me a job”.

In total, four of those among the ministerial ranks avoided giving a direct response, trotting out the “there is no vacancy” line or stating that they are focusing on their work, but a number of ministers did say that Mr Martin should go in order to allow for a leadership contest in January.

Another 21 politicians provided a range of non-committal answers, stating that they either don’t know when Mr Martin should stand down or that they would leave the decision to the Taoiseach.

But a bubbling annoyance remains just under the surface.

Eyebrows have been raised, and some noses put out of joint, by the recent elevation of Catherine Ardagh to a junior ministerial role after the departure of Michael Healy-Rae.

A “departing gesture” to a loyal member was how the appointment was described by one TD, who added that Ms Ardagh’s husband, Darragh McShea, has been assistant general secretary of Fianna Fáil since 2016.

Many had expected Cork North West TD Aindrias Moynihan to get the promotion. 

The decision to appoint Ms Ardagh came “left of field”, and it meant that other Dublin TDs who have been in the Dáil longer were also overlooked.

FF Whatsapp group criticises Martin

In the last seven days, senior members of the party have taken to a private WhatsApp group to vent frustration that Fine Gael had “stolen a march” on Fianna Fáil on the issue of a united Ireland.

Later in the week, politicians were put out by Martin’s surprise Dáil statement on abortion in which he announced that he would be supporting the Sinn Féin motion on a three-day waiting period. 

At a meeting of the parliamentary party, long-serving TD Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher accused the Taoiseach of trying to “influence” some party members in what was a free vote on the matter.

Members are also a little perplexed by the focus on driving through contentious changes to the triple lock. 

However, one member said that members are “beaten down” and there is little appetite to move in the immediate term.

“There are not enough people in the parliamentary party willing to challenge him because they are fed up of trying to challenge him.”

Call to emulate Fine Gael

This echoes a wider conundrum facing the party, with many putting forward the view that future candidates have yet to properly court members in a way that Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar doggedly went after, securing votes to secure the leadership of Fine Gael.

“It’s a poor reflection on the contenders,” said one very senior politician.

Another said: “Jim O’Callaghan, Dara Calleary, and Darragh O’Brien will probably be the ones who will surface as the main contenders and people are working, without being obvious around it, to cultivate a support base.”

Mr O’Callaghan is currently the most favoured member of the party, with 14 people saying they would back the justice minister in a leadership contest. He is followed by Mr Calleary, who has seven politicians happy to state that they would support him.

However, it is understood that Mr O’Callaghan, who has the backing of many of the so-called rebels, has told those closest to him that he has yet to fully decide whether to run.

Meanwhile, Mayo native Mr Calleary is understood to have indicated that he will take the summer recess to speak to family and friends before fully committing. 

The remaining 30 parliamentary party members would not provide a single name, but many offered up an opinion on who they think would feature alongside the two front-runners in any leadership battle.

These included Darragh O’Brien, Jack Chambers, James Lawless, Norma Foley, and Mary Butler. [See panel below]

It is understood that Mr Lawless was recently approached by some of the rebel group who offered to support the higher education minister if he were to move against the Taoiseach.

If he were to do so, this could pave the way for a leadership race.

Mr O’Callaghan has been described as a “statesman” who is “quietly confident in his own skin” and has “star quality”. But the justice minister, who lost some momentum with his “send in the army” remarks during the fuel protests, is also seen as “aloof”, with concerns around how he might fare in more rural constituencies.

Mr Calleary, on the other hand, is well-liked and described as a “safe pair of hands”. 

“We have Dara [Calleary] in the West and Darragh [O’Brien] in the East. Darragh in the East is not as ambitious as Dara in the West.

“Dara in the West is playing a great game: He is covering everything from Donegal to Limerick and over to Longford, so he is definitely battening down one side of the Shannon and is going over the Shannon now,” said one politician in summing up the candidates.

They added: “Even people in the West like Darragh in the East because he reminds them of Bertie. For those nostalgic factors in that part of Fianna Fáil, he will be popular.”

Jack Chambers, while not spoken about as much as previously, is still very much “in the mix”.

“He has been absolutely steeped in bad luck,” said one long-serving member.

“Jack was going so well with the sports capital grants [as junior sports minister], they nearly punished him by making him deputy leader. Going too well for your own good is a bad thing in Fianna Fáil. So he got clipped. The definition of getting clipped is giving you a job that you can’t succeed in, and that was the presidential elections.”

Fianna Fáil leadership contenders

Dara Calleary

Social protection minister Dara Calleary is seen as a “safe pair of hands” and is highly respected within his party.

From a Fianna Fáil dynasty in Mayo, Mr Calleary was elected to the Dáil in 2007 and served as the party’s deputy leader for two years, leading up to 2020, when he resigned amid the Golfgate controversy.

However, he has worked quietly since then, with one long-serving TD stating that “he will do the dog work of meeting people”.

Last month, he told Morning Ireland “loads of people” had asked him to run for leader, but said he wouldn’t be “distracted” until a vacancy arises.

Jack Chambers

Public expenditure minister Jack Chambers was at one point considered Martin’s anointed successor.

However, his handling of the Jim Gavin debacle as director of elections during the presidential election significantly lowered his standing in the party.

“He has been absolutely steeped in bad luck,” one senator said.

Jim O’Callaghan

Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan has been mentioned in leadership talk for many years, but his prospects were temporarily damaged over his handling of the fuel protests and his threat to bring in the army.

“Jim O’Callaghan is quite aloof, but very bright and people like to think he has star quality,” said one TD.

Another said he “has a presence both intellectually and physically”.

A Sunday Independent poll placed Mr O’Callaghan as a firm favourite among the public, the most popular Cabinet minister on 22%.

“Everyone is going to be guided by the public, and if you look at the polls, it seems Jim is way out ahead,” said one minister of state.

Darragh O’Brien

Transport minister Darragh O’Brien cannot be discounted and is seen as very popular in the party.

Citing his former role as housing minister, one senior party member said “he is a very good communicator on media” and is “able to ride a storm”.

Another TD said: “He reminds them [party members] of Bertie.

“For those nostalgic factors and that part of Fianna Fáil, he will be popular.”

Norma Foley

As a first-time TD, Norma Foley was elevated to education minister by Micheál Martin in 2020, and many would see her as his favoured candidate.

The Kerry TD is considered one of Martin’s most loyal supporters, which could work against her if she were to run.

James Lawless

While viewed as having a very outside chance, those in the party recognise the higher education minister has never been shy to make his ambitions known.

• Elaine Loughlin, Political Editor