Between 2022 and 2040, the general population in Ireland is expected to grow by up to 22%, the ESRI said.

It also said there was substantial variation across the regions, with higher growth projected in the east. The ESRI focused on the “significant growth” in numbers of older people. It referred to projections showing the proportion of people aged over 85 is expected to double by then.

In just 14 years’ time 20% of people in Ireland will be aged over 65.

What is the HSE planning for older people’s care?

The new chief executive Anne O’Connor has welcomed the changing age-profile as a success during her first months on the job.

However, she also told the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation conference: “We must change the way our health system works, because the status quo is no longer an option for the patients we serve or the professionals in this room.” 

The HSE needs to offer an “age-friendly health system” she told the Irish Medical Organisation, saying this means ”investing in workforce and digital enablers to support integrated care”.

It is now clear from the ESRI projections this needs to happen faster than is the currently the case. It estimated, for example, as many as 1,149 additional public health nurses are needed by 2040.

What does this look like now? 

The ICPOP (Integrated Care Programme for Older Persons) is one of the more visible examples of changes to come. 

There were 30 centres or hubs running by February this year, HSE figures show.

In a clear example of the growing demand for these jobs, each hub might have an occupational therapist, physiotherapist, medical social worker, as well as speech and language therapist and different nurses. 

Each has geriatricians and other doctors, as well as specialist healthcare assistants.

They function as a bridge between GP care and hospital care, according to HSE Mid-West. Its Thurles ICPOP carried out 5,400 reviews just last year, including home visits.

The ICPOP in Gurranabraher in Cork City sees more than 400 patients a month, HSE South-West figures show. Home visits were a welcome feature for service users the Irish Examiner met at the Tralee ICPOP. 

However, anecdotally at least, there are waiting lists in some areas already. 

Where else are therapists needed? 

These health and social care professionals are also needed in other high-demand areas. The ESRI plans to expand its analysis to look at disability and specialist mental health services.

Trade union Forsa said last week even if all the State’s children’s disability network teams were fully staffed with therapists and others, there are not enough to meet demand.

The ESRI findings are likely to feature in the Oireachtas health committee on Wednesday, when unions discuss staff morale in the HSE. This is expected to include a focus on staff shortages.