Russia has warned Armenia that it may unilaterally suspend or terminate a bilateral agreement governing natural gas, petroleum products, and uncut diamond supplies if Armenia continues its push to join the European Union.

Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev issued the threat in a letter dated May 25 to Armenia’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, the Russian business daily Kommersant reported, citing a copy of the letter it reviewed.

Russia and Armenia signed a 2013 agreement under which Russia indefinitely eliminated export duties on shipments of petroleum products, natural gas and diamonds to Armenia.

If the agreement is terminated, Armenia would be required to pay Russia compensation, or the unpaid amounts would be counted as Armenian state debt to Russia.

Should the agreement be dissolved, Armenia would face a significant supply-chain challenge, analysts say, as the country is heavily dependent on Russian commodities. Russia supplies 85% of Armenia’s gas, at least 62% of its petroleum products, and 50% of its imported diamonds.

Armenia has been actively gravitating toward the European Union in recent years and expects to gain visa-free access to the bloc within two years. The westward shift accelerated after Russia effectively refused to stand behind Yerevan in its conflict with Baku, pushing Armenia to strengthen ties with both the EU and the United States. Armenia’s parliament passed a law in 2025 setting the EU accession process in motion.

Moscow is attempting to influence Yerevan ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled in Armenia for June 7. Kremlin bots are reportedly running a campaign against incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In addition, Russia has imposed trade restrictions against Armenia.