Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s central bank governor, has not been seen in public in more than a week. She missed the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 4, a National Association of Securities Market Participants (NAUFOR) conference on June 9, and a June 10 meeting with Vladimir Putin where the president discussed inflation and the key interest rate — the Central Bank’s core areas of responsibility.

The Central Bank and the Kremlin said Nabiullina was ill. The Central Bank’s press service said she had missed SPIEF and the NAUFOR conference because she was on sick leave. After the meeting with Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov signaled that Nabiullina was still unwell: “People get sick sometimes — there’s nothing unusual about that. It shouldn’t be grounds for any conspiracy theories.” No details were provided on the nature of her illness or when she might return to work. Her next scheduled public appearance isn’t until early July. Meduza sent a request to the Central Bank but had not received a response by publication time.

Nabiullina’s absence has drawn the attention of media outlets and experts. When Nabiullina’s name disappeared from the list of SPIEF speakers, there was speculation that she had not wanted to participate in discussions about Central Bank policy, or that she had chosen to attend the funeral of her adviser Alexei Mozhin, who died on June 3, though she did not attend the farewell ceremony either. After the meeting with Putin, the independent Russian investigative outlet Agentstvo noted the absence of Nabiullina and her deputies.

Nabiullina’s disappearance has drawn attention amid speculation that she may soon step down. She is serving her third term as Central Bank governor, and Russian law prevents her from serving a fourth. Her mandate expires in June 2027. The Bell reported that three candidates are being considered to replace her: Maxim Oreshkin, deputy head of the Presidential Administration; Pyotr Fradkov, head of Promsvyazbank; and Andrei Kostin, head of VTB. But officials have not ruled out extending Nabiullina’s mandate to a fourth term through a change in the law.

A change of Central Bank governor is a major event — especially if that governor is Nabiullina. The Central Bank sets Russia’s monetary policy and regulates financial institutions. The Bell compares it to a single agency that sets traffic rules, issues fines, licenses drivers, and controls the price of gas. In most developed countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, these functions are distributed among several agencies. In Russia, everything is concentrated in one institution — and, in effect, in one person: Nabiullina.

Nabiullina’s influence has rested above all on Putin’s complete trust, according to media reports. That confidence has let her maintain genuine independence at the Central Bank and fend off attacks from representatives of Russia’s real economy, who since the war began have accused her of keeping interest rates too high and dragging down the economy. Either way, her departure would cause serious disruption, The Bell explained: maintain Nabiullina’s tight monetary policy and her successor faces the same criticism without Putin’s backing; yield to the real sector’s “wishes” and macroeconomic stability is at risk.