Latvia’s intelligence service has warned that Russia is planning “military provocations” against the Baltic states and Poland aimed at pressuring NATO into abandoning its support for Ukraine.
Intelligence officials told Fox News on June 22 that they had seen signs Russia was preparing “hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.” At the same time, according to Latvia’s intelligence assessments, Russia is not currently capable of launching a “conventional war.”
The intelligence service’s biggest current concern is that “Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear,” which could “lead to foolish and senseless decisions.”
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau previously released a report (.pdf) stating that Russia intends to file a lawsuit against the Baltic states in the International Court of Justice, accusing them of discriminating against Russians and Russian-speaking populations. The bureau believes Moscow is using the legal campaign to construct a narrative it can later invoke to justify action against the Baltic states.
The bureau also noted that Putin signed a law in late May granting him authority to deploy the armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad. Russia’s Federation Council had already granted him that authority immediately before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The intelligence service said Latvia does not currently face a threat of war and is not afraid of a full-scale invasion. “Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks,” intelligence officials said.
Russian authorities did not respond to a request for comment from Fox News journalists.
Polish authorities have previously stated that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank, carrying out killings, launching drones, conducting cyberattacks, organizing strikes on critical infrastructure, and weaponizing migration against NATO member states.
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