The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised for a third consecutive term in Assam, with the Axis My India exit poll projecting a sweeping victory for the ruling alliance in the 2026 Assembly elections.

According to the exit poll, the NDA is expected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark and indicating a strong mandate in favour of the alliance.

The Congress-led opposition alliance is projected to secure between 24 and 36 seats, placing it a distant second in the race.

In terms of vote share, Axis My India has estimated the NDA at 48 per cent, well ahead of the Congress+ alliance at 38 per cent, while others are projected to receive 14 per cent.

The geographical breakdown shows the NDA leading in both rural and urban Assam. The ruling alliance is projected to secure 47 per cent vote share in rural areas and 52 per cent in urban regions.

The Congress+ alliance is estimated at 39 per cent in rural constituencies and 34 per cent in urban areas, suggesting that while the opposition has made gains in some pockets, it remains behind the NDA across segments.

One of the most significant trends highlighted in the survey is the Congress+ alliance’s strongest gains in rural Assam, where it has recorded a positive swing of seven percentage points compared to the previous election.

However, the gains are not seen as sufficient to bridge the gap with the ruling alliance. Support for smaller parties and independents appears to have declined, with “Others” losing vote share in both rural and urban areas.

The caste and community data indicates a sharply polarised electorate. The NDA is projected to dominate among General category voters with 73 per cent support, Scheduled Castes with 71 per cent, and Other Backward Classes with 64 per cent.

Among Scheduled Tribe voters, the NDA is estimated to lead with 56 per cent support.

The Congress+ alliance, meanwhile, is projected to dominate the Muslim vote with a 78 per cent share, reflecting a significant swing in its favour compared to 2021.

Political observers said the exit poll suggests the BJP’s development plank, welfare outreach and alliance arithmetic may have helped retain broad support across multiple demographics.

However, exit polls are only projections based on post-voting surveys and may not always accurately predict final outcomes. Variations in sampling, voter response patterns and methodology can affect forecasts.