Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, on May 4, thanked Narendra Modi after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) crossed the majority mark in the 126-member Assam Assembly, leading in 102 seats as counting progressed.

“On behalf of the BJP, I thank the people of Assam. I also thank PM Modi for supporting Assam for the last 10 years. I hope that Assam will lead in all sectors in the coming days,” Sarma told reporters, flashing a victory sign. Referring to state BJP president Dilip Saikia, he added, “‘Saikia’ means over a hundred. The people of Assam have voted for us wholeheartedly.”

The BJP improved its vote share to 38.59 per cent in 2026, up from 33.6 per cent in 2016, indicating a five percentage point swing in its favour. Analysts attribute the gain to consolidation of support in key constituencies, while opposition parties struggled to convert their base into seats.

The Indian National Congress saw its vote share dip marginally from 30 per cent in 2021 to 29.26 per cent. A large proportion of its leading candidates—18 out of 19—are from the Muslim community, reflecting its current support base.

Meanwhile, All India United Democratic Front, led by Badruddin Ajmal, registered a sharp decline. The party’s vote share fell to 5.29 per cent, with only two leads, compared to 9.4 per cent in 2016. Changes following delimitation are seen as a major factor affecting its performance.

Sarma retained the Jalukbari seat with a decisive margin, securing 112,186 votes and defeating his Congress rival by more than 80,000 votes.

A key upset came from Jorhat, where Gaurav Gogoi lost to BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami by 23,182 votes. Goswami polled 69,439 votes, while Gogoi secured 46,257, according to Election Commission data. The result is being viewed as a setback for the Gogoi family’s long-standing influence in Upper Assam.

The outcome signals a shift towards a bipolar contest in the state, with the BJP and Congress emerging as the principal rivals, while regional parties face shrinking political space.