Assam appeared firmly on course for another BJP-led government on May 4 as counting trends from the Election Commission showed the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surging far ahead of the Congress-led opposition alliance in the high-stakes 2026 Assembly elections.

With counting underway across 40 centres covering all 126 Assembly constituencies, the BJP-led NDA crossed the halfway mark early in the day and continued to widen its lead as rounds progressed. According to Election Commission trends, the NDA was leading in 98 seats, with the BJP alone ahead in 78 constituencies, while its allies — the Atul Bora-led Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People's Front were leading in 10 seats each.

The Congress was ahead in 25 seats, while ally Raijor Dal led in one constituency.

The trends strongly indicated that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was poised to return to power for a second consecutive term, giving the NDA its third straight victory in Assam after wins in 2016 and 2021.

Counting began at 8 am with postal ballots before Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) counting commenced amid massive security 
arrangements across the state. Authorities deployed 25 companies of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) along with over 800 additional police personnel to secure counting centres and strong rooms housing EVMs.

Early trends showed Sarma leading comfortably from Jalukbari, while Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi was ahead in Jorhat, though he raised concerns over the “slow counting” in Titabor constituency and urged patience until final results emerged.

Several key ministers of the outgoing BJP-led government established strong leads, including Agriculture Minister Atul Bora in Bokakhat. BJP candidate Pradyut Bordoloi, who switched from Congress ahead of the elections, surged ahead in the prestigious Dispur constituency with a massive lead over Congress rival Mira Borthakur Goswami.

Meanwhile, several opposition heavyweights struggled in the early rounds. Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia trailed BJP candidate Mayur Borgohain in Nazira, while Akhil Gogoi lagged behind BJP’s Kushal Dowari in Sibsagar. Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) chief Lurinjyoti Gogoi and other prominent opposition leaders also faced setbacks in early counting trends.

In Guwahati Central, AJP candidate Kunki Chowdhury who drew national attention during the campaign following a controversy involving remarks by the Chief Minister was trailing BJP veteran Vijay Kumar Gupta by over 7,000 votes after multiple rounds.

The election, seen as a crucial political battle in the Northeast, witnessed intense campaigning around issues including illegal immigration, identity politics, development, inflation, unemployment, and law and order. While exit polls had largely projected a comfortable NDA victory, opposition parties had dismissed them as “bogus” and “psychological pressure tactics.”

As counting continued, celebrations had already begun at BJP offices in several districts, with party leaders expressing confidence that Assam was set to reaffirm its support for the saffron alliance once again.