VMware to lose 35 percent of workloads in three years – some to its friends at ‘proper clouds’
Gartner says migrations remain a risky multi-year nightmare, but selective re-platforming can pay off
More than a third of workloads currently running under VMware will run on another platform by 2028, with its own trusted hosting partners pushing some customers to make the move.
So says Gartner research VP Julia Palmer. On Wednesday at the analyst firm’s Symposium event in Australia, Palmer pointed out that the Broadcom business unit recently tweaked its licensing program so that hyperscalers can no longer sell VMware subscriptions to users of their hosted VMware services. Customers must instead buy direct from Broadcom and use license portability entitlements for any VMware infrastructure they host in hyperscale clouds.
We are all addicted to hypervisors. That needs to change
Palmer said that decision shows VMware does not consider hyperscalers strategic partners, and she thinks the feeling is mutual. Hyperscalers nevertheless welcome customers who use them to run VMware workloads “because they know over time they will convert you to ‘proper cloud’.”
Which is one reason she expects VMware will lose so many workloads: Hyperscalers will use their engagements with VMware customers to extol the virtue of public clouds.
Palmer thinks VMware customers should heed that pitch.
“We are all addicted to hypervisors, and that needs to change,” Palmer said, not least because Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware shows how lock-in to a virtualization platform can be costly.
But she counseled against planning to move all workloads off VMware, as no rival vendor offers a superior platform and a full migration will take three or more years. Palmer instead advised assessing which applications are ripe for modernization and re-platforming, and shifting those – a job that can take up to a year.
Rating the rivals
Palmer said VMware users contemplating a move should consider Nutanix first. Although its prices are not much lower than Virtzilla's, its platform is comparable and the company offers powerful migration tools.
Public clouds are her next suggestion as a migration destination, with a caution that infrastructure-as-a-service is not suitable for every virtualized workload and can be costly.
Azure Local, Microsoft’s latest on-prem cloud-in-a-box, is her third choice – with a big caveat, as the largest cluster it supports comprises just 16 hosts, well short of the hardware fleet many VMware users employ. Windows Server paired with Hyper-V is her next choice, but with reservations as she feels Microsoft “is not in love with it” and clearly wants its users on Azure.
Red Hat virtualization is Palmer’s last choice. “It is the only option VMware thinks is a competitor,” she said, before urging users to exercise extreme caution before considering OpenStack or KubeVirt as few organizations have the skills to support those platforms.
The analyst recommended none of the above platforms if the goal of a move away from VMware is solely to cut costs. Palmer said organizations that make a move should take the opportunity to modernize applications, and to improve some aspect of operations. She again used Nutanix as an example, saying its storage and support offerings are both superior to VMware’s.
She also suggested taking a good look at VMware's own private cloud, saying Cloud Foundation (VCF) 9 – the company’s recently launched suite – is a solid package that reflects heavy R&D spending by Broadcom. She said VCF 9 is a “silver lining” for VMware customers who face rising prices and, in Gartner research, express increasing dissatisfaction with the vendor’s support services and slow response to requests for subscription quotes.
Palmer also thinks VMware’s licenses are too expensive for remote office, branch office, and edge locations, and said customers fear Broadcom will implement further price rises.
Her bottom line? “Don’t put yourself in a box.” With any vendor, if possible.
Broadcom last week posted results that included strong growth from sales of VMware products, said its top 10,000 customers have mostly signed up for VCF, and expressed optimism another 20,000 to 30,000 smaller customers will soon do likewise. ®