Countries intent on digital sovereignty will need to invest at least 1 percent of their entire gross domestic product (GDP) into AI infrastructure by 2029, according to analyst biz Gartner.
The consultant claims digital sovereignty will lead to countries being locked into region-specific AI platforms based on proprietary contextual data. This means their domestic AI stacks may be bespoke, with reduced collaboration and duplication of effort driving up the cost.
"Countries with digital sovereignty goals are increasing investment in domestic AI stacks as they look for alternatives to the closed US model, including computing power, datacenters, infrastructure and models aligned with local laws, culture, and region," said Gartner VP Analyst Gaurav Gupta.
Gartner reckons 35 percent of countries will be locked into region-specific systems by next year.
Localized models deliver more contextual value, outperforming non-customized global models in applications such as education, legal compliance, and public services, Gartner says, especially in non-English languages.
Concerns over digital or data sovereignty have been around for years with the growing dominance of US tech giants. But these were turbocharged last year following the inauguration of President Trump, whose behavior has at times been erratic and his policies often punitive.
Many of the largest AI companies are either American or US-owned, but Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella argued recently that AI sovereignty is less about where the application runs and more about who controls it.
The problem for Europe and other regions in their quest for digital sovereignty is the dependency on US cloud infrastructure, hence the need for nations to spend more on AI infrastructure of their own.
"Datacenters and AI factory infrastructure form the critical backbone of the AI stack that enables AI sovereignty," claimed Gupta.
"AI factory" is an industry buzzword that essentially means a server farm dedicated to AI processing.
"As a result, datacenters and AI factory infrastructure will see explosive build-up and investment going forward, propelling a few companies that control the AI stack to achieve double-digit, trillion-dollar valuations," Gupta said.
However, 1 percent of GDP – the total value of a country's entire economic activity – is a substantial amount. In the UK, for example, this would equate to about £30 billion ($39 billion).
This is overshadowed by many of the US tech giants, which are already investing more into infrastructure for AI than the entire GDP of some countries. ®
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