Legal
Feds say insider used confidential search trend data to score $1.2M in prediction market profits
A long-serving Google engineer based in Zurich faces charges in the US for allegedly profiting from confidential company information by making Polymarket bets.
According to court documents, between October and December 2025, Italian national Michele Spagnuolo, 36, made a series of bets using confidential data related to Google's annual Year in Search report.
What started out with a few hundred dollars placed on Kendrick Lamar being named the most-searched individual in 2025 turned into $2.75 million worth of bets related to whether specific individuals would or would not be named the most-searched in Google's Year in Search.
The criminal complaint filed regarding Spagnuolo's alleged offenses related to the following bets:
$403 for Kendrick Lamar to be most-searched at 3 percent probability
$10,807 on Pope Leo XIV not being the most-searched person
$381.12 for D4vd to be among the top five most-searched individuals, with implied odds reflecting an 18 percent probability. This bet was made after allegedly re-accessing Year in Search data in November, which had changed since the last time he allegedly accessed it in October
$5 for D4vd to be most-searched at a probability of only slightly higher than 0 percent
$937,688 for Bianca Censori to not be the most-searched at 85 percent probability
$509,149 for Donald Trump to not be the most-searched at 90 percent probability
$171,612 for Donald Trump not to be among the top five most-searched at 66 percent probability
After Google released its Year in Search for 2025 on December 4, Spagnuolo allegedly made approximately $1.2 million in profits from the bets made by the AlphaRaccoon account on Polymarket.
Investigating the matter, Brandon Racz, special agent at the FBI who sought Spagnuolo's arrest warrant, stated that the AlphaRaccoon account, which was allegedly controlled by the Italian, appeared to empty the contents of its wallet into other exchanges.
The FBI believes Spagnuolo was trying to launder the proceeds of his bets. After the contents of AlphaRaccoon's Polymarket wallet – 5.045 million USDC.e – were transferred out, blockchain data showed a series of subsequent transactions.
These included at least two with a decentralized cryptocurrency swapping service and one with a cryptocurrency transfer service that markets itself as protecting privacy by removing wallet addresses from a blockchain.
The criminal complaint [PDF] also notes that the FBI was scouring social media discussions about AlphaRaccoon's profits.
Investigators highlighted conversations that occurred shortly after Year in Search was published in December, with users speculating that AlphaRaccoon was a Google insider.
Commercial value
The FBI stated in its arrest warrant application that the commercial value of Google's Year in Search marketing campaign is rooted in the surprise factor of the results.
It also said that the campaign serves as a commercially important barometer for Google to assert its dominance in the search market, and accessing data before it's made public, not least profiting from it, is harmful to the tech giant.
The data that underpins Year in Search is restricted to Googlers. Only a limited number of employees are able to access it, including Spagnuolo.
According to screenshots of the software used to access the data, seen by the FBI, the word "Confidential" is displayed in a banner, written in red text.
Following his arrest on May 27, Spagnuolo faces charges related to commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering, which together carry a combined maximum sentence of 50 years.
"Today's charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," said US attorney Jay Clayton.
"As alleged, Spagnuolo violated the duties he owed to his employer and used Google's confidential business information to make more than $1.2 million in trading profits on Polymarket. Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted."
"Michele Spagnuolo allegedly abused his elevated access to confidential trends to place bets with nonpublic information and receive more than one million dollars in unlawful profits," said FBI assistant director in charge James C. Barnacle, Jr.
"The FBI remains dedicated to searching for fraudsters who betray their employer for personal financial gains." ®