Amid the thunder of Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rockets, Lebanon's ancient Christian communities cling to fragile neutrality—yet whispers grow that this war could shatter Hezbollah's grip forever, handing Maronites, Greek Orthodox, Armenians, and other Christian sects a historic chance at revival.

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Whether that hope leads anywhere remains unclear. The fighting could stay largely confined to southern Lebanon, widen into a broader regional conflict, or end in an arrangement that reduces the violence without resolving the deeper question of who controls decisions over war and peace in the country.

For Reda Sawaya, a Lebanese journalist and member of the Maronite community, the war reflects not just military escalation but the collapse of hopes that the state might begin reasserting itself after the election of a new president and the formation of a government.

“I do not claim to speak on behalf of Christians or Maronites, nor to represent their views in general. However, based on my observation, the prevailing sentiment is a national one that transcends sectarian lines, coupled with deep concern about the country’s future amid the major transformations taking place in the region,” Sawaya told The Media Line.

Sawaya said many Lebanese had viewed the new government as the start of a new phase. Instead, he said, the war brought “a state of collective loss of hope and a profound shock.”

He said that disappointment grew out of the gap between official declarations and the reality on the ground, especially over who holds arms and who makes the country’s strategic decisions.

“It is worth noting that last August, the government adopted decisions related to restricting arms exclusively to the Lebanese Army and security forces, which implicitly meant disarming Hezbollah. Both the president of the republic and the prime minister also repeatedly stressed that decisions of war and peace fall under the authority of the state and the government,” he said.

“Thus, Hezbollah’s entry into the war generalized a sense of despair regarding the possibility of state recovery and exposed the extent of its fragility,” Sawaya explained.

The war is also accelerating a long-running demographic shift. Sawaya said emigration, particularly among communities with deep diaspora ties, has become one of the clearest signs of dwindling confidence in Lebanon’s future.

“The clearest indication of this widespread despair is the new wave of emigration that followed the latest war: figures indicate that more than 240,000 Lebanese have emigrated since September 2024 up to today, a significant proportion of whom are, of course, Christians,” Sawaya said.

For many Lebanese, leaving is no longer just a temporary response to danger. It is increasingly becoming a permanent decision driven by the belief that the country offers little prospect of stability or recovery.

“Lebanon is a small country, and whatever affects any region or any group ultimately impacts everyone,” he added.

That insecurity extends even to places that have not borne the brunt of the fighting. Sawaya said many Christian-majority areas have avoided direct Israeli strikes, but that relative safety has not spared them fear, disruption, or the broader political consequences of the war.

“In general, areas with a predominantly Christian population have not been subjected to Israeli attacks, so one cannot speak of a wave of Christian displacement,” Sawaya noted.

In southern Lebanon, however, the picture is harsher. Christian villages near active combat zones have come under intense pressure even when residents have tried to remain in place.

“Where intense battles are taking place, residents of Christian villages have chosen to stand their ground and remain in their homes, with clear support from the Church and pressure from the Vatican in this regard to prevent Israel from displacing them,” he explained. In this regard, the Papal ambassador in Lebanon has played a central role in urging Christian residents to remain steadfast, but according to Sawaya, there have not yet been indications of any practical steps being taken to facilitate this.

“Nevertheless, these villages have not been spared from events: the priest of the town of Qlayaa, Father Pierre al-Rahi, was killed because of Israeli shelling. Likewise, despite significant pressure, the Israeli army insisted on evacuating the predominantly Christian town of Alma al-Shaab, even though its residents were determined to stay,” he added.

“As for those who chose—or were forced—to flee, … they most likely went to the homes of relatives in other areas rather than to shelters. There is no evidence of any of them emigrating, as they remain attached to staying in their villages; those who left were compelled to do so by Israel following evacuation demands,” Sawaya said.

Among Lebanon’s Armenians, the war has produced a somewhat different experience, shaped by geography, communal networks, and a distinct sense of identity.

“Overall, people in the Armenian Christian community are closely following the situation and are concerned like everyone else in Lebanon, but for now, they are generally safe. Daily life continues with caution. Only a couple of times, areas largely inhabited by Armenians were targeted, and there have been no Armenian casualties,” Nareg Keusseyan, a journalist, founder of Tovia Media, and member of Lebanon’s Armenian community, told The Media Line.

Keusseyan pointed to Bourj Hammoud, a heavily Armenian area, as one place where the war has touched the community directly.

“Bourj Hammoud, which is an area mainly inhabited by Armenians, has been targeted. In those cases, individuals with links or affiliations to militant groups were targeted in precise drone strikes on specific apartments,” he said.

Even without large-scale displacement, security fears have spread. Keusseyan said some Armenians believe Hezbollah operatives are embedding themselves in civilian neighborhoods, potentially exposing residents to danger.

“Many Armenians I know who live there have voiced frustration, accusing Hezbollah affiliates of infiltrating their community and ‘hiding among them,’ which they say endangers the safety of their neighborhoods and residents,” he explained.

He said Armenian neighborhoods such as Bourj Hammoud and parts of Metn have remained more stable than some other parts of the country, supported by churches, local organizations, and diaspora networks.

“There haven’t been organized evacuations specifically for Armenians that I’m aware of, but there is strong community support through churches, local organizations, and diaspora networks helping families if needed,” he added.

Both interviewees described broad opposition to Lebanon’s involvement in the war, while stopping short of claiming to speak for all Christians. Keusseyan said that among the Christians he knows, the dominant mood is one of anger at Hezbollah and rejection of a conflict they did not choose.

“Overall, a very significant majority of Christians I know, whether Maronite, Armenian Apostolic, Orthodox, or Catholic, feel very negative about this war and believe we should have no involvement whatsoever,” Keusseyan said.

“Many are angry at Hezbollah and say the country has been dragged into another war again within just a few years,” he noted.

He said those fears are tied not only to the fighting itself but also to internal displacement and the possibility that militant activity could spread into areas that have so far remained relatively calm.

“At the same time, many people fear possible Hezbollah infiltration into their communities amid the mass internal displacement, which they worry could endanger them and potentially provide a pretext for expanding Israeli strikes,” he asserted.

Within Armenian communities in particular, Keusseyan said many people feel they have no stake in either side’s war and are focused instead on preserving their safety and communal stability.

“There is a strong feeling within Armenian communities here that we have nothing to do with what’s going on with either side in this conflict,” he said.

The war has also produced examples of cross-sectarian solidarity. In relatively safer areas, Sawaya said, churches, monasteries, civil society groups, and local initiatives have helped shelter and support displaced families, many of them Shiites from hard-hit areas.

“On the humanitarian and national level, however, other regions considered relatively safe from the war have hosted the displaced with solidarity and cohesion,” Sawaya said.

“The Church and monasteries have played a prominent role in this regard by sheltering and assisting the displaced—most of whom are Shiites,” he added.

Sawaya said civil society organizations and grassroots efforts across the country have helped fill gaps left by the state.

“In the end, humanitarian instinct has prevailed over political divisions,” he noted.

The war has also revived discussion of what any longer-term arrangement between Lebanon and Israel might require. Keusseyan referred to reports of a possible French diplomatic framework that could include Lebanese recognition of Israel, while noting that French officials later denied such a plan existed.

Israel has said its goals are to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities, push its forces away from the southern border, and restore deterrence after repeated cross-border attacks. Keusseyan said some Lebanese reacted with cautious interest to talk of a broader diplomatic framework, seeing it as a possible path toward greater stability and, eventually, an end to recurring wars with Israel.

“I support most of the elements mentioned in the alleged French plan, particularly those related to strengthening state authority, broader Lebanese Army deployment, and addressing weapons outside state control. There is some optimism that it could help pave the way for direct diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel, which would be unprecedented and could help end the cycle of wars and destruction,” he said.

At the same time, Keusseyan said many Lebanese do not view the current conflict as a war chosen by the Lebanese state, but as one driven by foreign-backed armed actors operating from Lebanese territory.

He also said many Armenians feel a historical and cultural connection to Jerusalem.

“I think that if given the chance, most Armenians would love to visit Jerusalem, especially the Armenian Quarter, one day, including myself. It’s something we take pride in, as Armenians are the only nation, distinct from religious groups, to have their own quarter in the Old City,” he said.

Any future scenario, however, returns to the same question: whether the Lebanese state can impose its authority on its own territory and institutions. Sawaya argued that, at present, it cannot.

“So far, Israel has not shown any serious interest in negotiations. In contrast, the Lebanese state is entering negotiations from a position of weakness. The Lebanese side lacks the means to control Hezbollah or its weapons and has no real capacity to deter it from continuing the war, and we saw this in the span of the previous ceasefire in 2024,” Sawaya noted.

Despite rumors of denials, Israel, for its part, has shown interest in proceeding with direct negotiations with Lebanon aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and disarming Hezbollah.

“At present, the Lebanese state is the weakest link. The state stands alone: if it takes the initiative, internal stability is at risk; if it does not, the situation is heading toward something worse [than] what we are experiencing,” he added.

Lebanon’s Christians have long cast themselves as defenders of sovereignty, neutrality, and institutional continuity. Sawaya said that vision remains alive, but is under mounting strain.

“Christians have long sought to promote a ‘Lebanon first’ approach, keeping the country away from regional conflicts through the adoption of neutrality and the belief in their state and international bodies. So, between Hezbollah refusing to adhere to the state’s requests and Israel aiming to respond directly to the group, Christians had no other choice other than supporting the state discourse,” Sawaya explained.

For now, support for the state is colliding with the state’s inability to protect the people placing their faith in it. That contradiction lies at the heart of the dilemma described by both men: a desire for sovereignty and neutrality in a country where the state still cannot fully enforce either.

“The weaker the state becomes, the more anxious Christians feel. Yet in the past, Christians were willing to fight for the country with their own blood. But today no one wants to relive the experiences of the past, and the hope remains placed in the state and its legitimate institutions,” he concluded.

As the war between Israel and Hezbollah continues to reverberate across Lebanon, the country’s Christian communities—long seen as a pillar of its political and social fabric—find themselves navigating a familiar but increasingly acute dilemma: how to remain rooted in a state that appears progressively unable to shield them from regional conflict.