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阮一峰的网络日志

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Tech Enthusiast Weekly (Issue 311): Low Interest Rates and Long-Term Projects
阮一峰 · 2024-08-02 · via 阮一峰的网络日志

This records the weekly technology content worth sharing, released every Friday.

This magazine is open source , and we welcome submissions . There is also the "Who is Hiring" service, which posts programmer job listings. For collaborations, please contact us via email [email protected]).

Cover image

Wuhan's East Lake Beach Scenic Area has a newly launched "Floating Cinema on Water." At night, audiences sit in inflatable boats to watch water movies.via) (

Low interest rates and long-term projects

) First, let's talk about an economic news. (

) Last Thursday, ( deposit interest rates ) were lowered, with the annual interest rate for five-year fixed deposits only 1.8%. (

) This is a sign that () we have now entered a low-interest-rate era . (

) Not only are bank deposit interest rates low, but project returns have also decreased. (

) It's now very difficult to find high-return projects, and even if you do, the risks are significant. The average social investment return rate has already fallen far below what it was a decade ago.

From now on, everyone will gradually adapt to the era of low interest rates. The situation of high interest rates and high growth in the past will be very difficult to reproduce.

But, low interest rates also have positive effects. Today, I want to talk about one of them, at least allowing us to be more optimistic about the future.

That is,Low interest rates will encourage people to value long-term projects.

The returns from long-term projects primarily come from the distant future, unlike short-term projects, where the returns mainly come from the present.

In an environment of low interest rates, more people will choose long-term projects. The reason is that the future income of long-term projects, when discounted to present value, will increase, meaning that low interest rates reduce the difference between future income and current income.

Economist Zhang Wuchen once said that low interest rates would encourage more young people to study medicine. Being a doctor is a long-term profession; it's very poor and meager in the early stages, with income only steadily rising in middle age and then remaining stable until old age.

Low interest rates will reduce the income loss for doctors during their apprenticeship period, while amplifying income expectations after middle age..

Below is an article I recently readRelated articlesIt's also about discussing this issue, explaining another point why long-term projects are better than short-term ones. I think it's well-written.

(1) In this world, most people are playing short-term games. If you play long-term games, you will gain an advantage from it.

(2) This is because, if you do what others are doing, the rewards should be about the same as others, which can only guarantee that you get average results, unless you are very lucky.

(3) To get a return higher than others, you must either do different things or do things differently.

(4) Choosing long-term games that few people play makes it easier for you to get returns higher than others. It's not because it's simpler; in fact, it's more difficult. But the fact that you invest in difficult things every day makes tomorrow easier.

(5) The hardest part of long-term games is the first step. You must be willing to endure current pain to make tomorrow a little easier.

(6) In long-term games, you can only create a tiny advantage every day. It's not noticeable, but it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

(7) You can't play the long game in everything. You need to choose what's important to you, make a long-term plan, and then invest in it long-term.

Technology Trends

1, MO/GO Exoskeleton

A U.S. startup company has officially launched its human exoskeleton product MO/GO, which is likely the first similar product to hit the market worldwide.

This exoskeleton is worn on the thigh and consists of two parts. First is a运动裤 with straps inside.

Next are the motor and battery placed outside the pants.

It cannot replace walking for you, but it can help you generate and recover force when the knee joint bends and straightens. According to the company, this device is particularly useful when going uphill, saving 40% of your energy.

It can be used for three hours on a single charge. Orders are now being accepted, with delivery scheduled for early next year, priced at $5,000.

2、 Titanium Heart

An American company has launched a titanium artificial heart.

It features a magnetically levitated rotor pump inside, responsible for pumping blood to the two heart chambers. The advantage of magnetic levitation is to minimize friction as much as possible, ensuring smooth operation.

(Image description: Researchers insert a plastic tube into the titanium heart to simulate blood vessels.)

The titanium heart can pump 12 liters of blood per minute, enough to meet the body's needs. However, it requires a small rechargeable external motor to drive it.

Currently, it cannot yet permanently replace the native heart; it can only serve as a relief measure before a heart transplant, and the patient will ultimately need to receive a heart from another person.

3, Bubble Barrier

Microplastics are increasingly entering natural water systems, and due to their tiny size, removing them is very difficult.

A Dutch company has proposed a clever solution. They found a compressor with its exhaust pipe placed at the bottom of the river, creating a continuous flow of bubbles that rise to the surface (the green part in the lower image).

Since the bubbles are directional, they carry the plastic particles in the water along the predetermined path toward the pre-set filtration area (the white area in the upper image), thereby achieving interception. At the same time, the force of the bubbles is not strong, and it is estimated that they will not affect fish.

The company has already implemented a simple version in the urban river (see the figure above), and it is indeed effective. The challenge lies in its low efficiency, making it difficult to deploy in large quantities in natural rivers.

4. Others

(1) The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television requires a comprehensive implementation of a remote control for watching TV, meaning the set-top box and TV should share a remote control.

(2) Windows Insider can now directly access the file system of Android phones.

Article

1. Ren Zhengfei watches TV (Chinese)

This article includes Ren Zhengfei's evaluations of various TV dramas in his different speeches.

2、TOP50 List of WeChat Mini Program User Scale (Chinese)

The 50 largest WeChat Mini Programs by monthly active users (MAU) in the first half of this year.

3、Popular Explanation of Certificate Authority (CA) (English)

This article explains the working principle of website certificates in plain language.

4、I fell in love with Makefile (English)

This is a beginner's tutorial on Makefiles, introducing how to use them to simplify and automate daily development tasks.

5、DuckDB operates on JSON data(English)

DuckDB is a database focused on data analysis, and the author found that it can conveniently process JSON data, being easier to use than jq.

6、Tunnelmole入门(English)

Tunnelmole is a simple and easy-to-use tunneling tool that doesn't require configuration—just one command allows the public network to access intranet services.

7、How Google Code Search works (English)

Google launched code search (the image above) in 2006 and shut it down in 2013.

This article is an article written by the author of this feature in 2012, introducing the implementation principles, how to search code using triplets, and it's quite understandable.

Tools

1. Zulip

An open-source group chat software with a server and clients on various platforms.

2. win-vind

This tool provides Vim-style shortcuts for Windows systems and can also be used as a shortcut setter for Windows.

canvas-confetti

a JavaScript library for throwing colorful confetti on web pages.

4、WR.DO

an open-source web application that operates through the Cloudflare DNS API, creating subdomains and short links for the domain wr.do.(@oiov submitted)

5、code-box

an open-source browser extension used to bypass restrictions on websites such as CSDN/Zhihu/Script Home/Cnblogs/Cnblogs/51CTO Blog (e.g., requiring login).(@027xiguapi Submitted)

6、X File Storage

A Java software package for file upload, one line of code compatible with various domestic storage platforms. ( @1171736840 Submitted)

7、php-nginx

A web server developed with PHP, similar to nginx, can be used for learning. ( @lovefc Submitted)

8、Saving money

A free mobile accounting app, supports iOS and Android. (Submitted by @NeroSong)

9、StatiCrypt

This tool can encrypt web pages and generate a new web page. To open the new web page, you need to enter a password to view the content.

10、screenshot.rocks

An online tool that can add browser borders to web page screenshots.

AI related

1、Luvvoice

A free online text-to-speech service, offering over 200 voices in various languages. ( @huanwa Submission)

2、Outfitify

A free AI outfit evaluation tool, no registration required. ( @zhbhun Submission)

3、Diffree

An online image editing tool that adds new elements to images via text commands, such as typing "add a few clouds to the sky." ( @zinc1234596 Submission)

4、DiscovAI

An open-source AI product search engine that can use your own data.(@Ryan-yang125 Submission)

Resources

1、The Far Side

The official website of Gary Larson, the famous American cartoonist, which is updated daily, showcasing his single-panel comic works.

2、Paleontological 3D Specimens

This website provides 3D models of various paleontological specimens, which can be rotated 360 degrees and even have their bones animated.

3、DistroSea

try various Linux distributions online, it assigns a virtual machine, connect to the desktop in the browser.

4、write your own OAuth 2.0 login client(English)

an beginner's tutorial, introduces in detail how to write an OAuth 2.0 login client, using Google login as an example, with code comments.

images

1、transparent TV wall

At this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, LG used transparent TVs to create a TV wall, which was very spectacular.

Its biggest feature is that the content can be seen from both the front and the back.

From a distance, it looks like an indoor waterfall, but up close, you realize it's a glass screen playing videos.

2、 Clam Water Quality Monitoring

The waterworks in Warsaw, Poland, use clams to monitor water quality.

Clams, as bivalve mollusks, have a characteristic: when the water quality is poor, they close, and only open when the water quality is good.

The waterworks utilize this characteristic by installing a spring on the clam's shell, with a small iron piece at the top of the spring. When the water quality is poor and the shell closes, the iron piece falls, lands on a support, completes the circuit, and thus triggers a water quality alarm.

When the water quality improves, the shell opens, the circuit breaks, and the water quality alarm is canceled.

Abstract

1、How to Create an Excellent Technical Blog

The technical blogs I like all share some common characteristics:

(1) Solving difficulties or helping readers understand confusing topics.

(2) Including clear and understandable code or examples.

(3) Making things simpler.

(4) Writing regularly.

(5) Not avoiding the costs and drawbacks of the introduced technologies.

(6) Not using internet slang, curses, sarcasm, or shouting.

2, The History of Search Engines

Previously, libraries around the world helped people find information.

Later, internet search engines appeared, allowing people to quickly and conveniently find the right information. Twenty years later, almost no one went to physical libraries to look for information; most people used search engines.

After gaining dominance, search engines were not content with merely providing search functions and decided to provide information themselves, no longer linking to other places.

Search engines start writing books on all topics themselves, and the quality is slightly worse than the original books, but they make it easier for people to access the books they write. Since search engines are not experts in specific topics, the books they write are just simple explanations of the original materials, and sometimes they are even copied word for word.

Google is doing it this way now. It uses artificial intelligence to extract data from human-created content and generates its own content without professional knowledge or authoritative support.

For years, users have been complaining about "content farms," which are websites that produce a large amount of low-quality articles on various topics to achieve high rankings in search engines and gain traffic. However, now it seems Google is about to become the world's largest content farm, with robots producing an unlimited number of customized articles in real-time.

言论

1、

If I predict the probability of extraterrestrials landing on Earth in the next ten years to be 80%, no one would take it seriously. Discussing the risks of AI to human survival at this stage is like discussing the landing of extraterrestrials.

-- 《AI Risks Are Too Unreliable》

2、

The problem with the React framework is that its focus isn't on making things simple but on expansionism—conquering new frontiers of knowledge.

-- DHH, the author of the Ruby on Rails framework

3、

Schrödinger's cat refers to a box containing a quantum mechanical device. Once the cat enters the box and the lid is closed, the quantum may kill the cat, or it may not.

The question is, if you don't open the box, you can't know whether the cat is dead or alive. So, the cat's life or death is uncertain, and any certainty is created by the observer.

-- How Did Schrödinger's Cat Become Famous?

4、

Psychologists conducted an experiment where participants were kept in a state of semi-starvation for a long time. As a result, the psychology of these participants underwent permanent changes.

After the experiment ended, many people developed a liking for cooking books and restaurant menus, carefully comparing fruit and vegetable prices in newspapers, and even began to reconsider their careers, opting to work in agriculture or the food industry.

Psychologists said this proves that people are attracted to what they lack.

--A Utopian Economic Thought

Review of Past Years

Insights from Elasticsearch(2023 #264)

Your Map is Wrong(2022 #214)

Comparison of Job Success Rates: Training Courses vs. Universities(2021 #164)

USB-Like Survival and Uber-Jobs(2020 #114)

(Complete)