A new wave of corporate insolvency threatens the global economy, as bankruptcies worldwide surged by 12% already in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the corresponding period last year – This emerges from a recent report by credit insurance giant Coface.

According to the company's data, the primary trigger for this trend is the crisis with Iran that erupted on February 28, bringing with it a sharp rise in energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and increased shipping costs. These factors, alongside labor costs and tightening credit conditions, are exerting a triple and intensifying pressure on the profit margins of businesses worldwide.

Following these developments, Coface sharply updated its forward-looking forecasts. The global insolvency forecast for the entirety of 2026 is now expected to record an increase of 6% – A figure that represents more than double the forecast formulated by the company at the beginning of the year. In terms of geographical breakdown, the sharpest increases in bankruptcies are expected to be recorded in the US and France (8% each), Japan (7%), and Germany and the Netherlands (around 5%). In contrast, countries like Spain, Italy, and the UK are expected to record more moderate increases, which will stand in the range of 2%–3%.

The worrying global trend does not bypass the local market. According to data from CofaceBDi, a trend similar to the global one is also evident in Israel: During the first quarter of 2026, approximately 16,200 companies and businesses closed in the country. This figure reflects an increase of about 6% relative to the corresponding period last year.

An analysis of the sectors most exposed to harm reveals that energy-intensive manufacturing industries, such as chemicals, metals, and paper, are at the highest risk. Simultaneously, the services, transportation, logistics, hospitality, and tourism sectors are now exposed to a double blow, consisting of both high operating costs and a decline in consumer demand. In the longer term, Coface warns that the automotive, agriculture, construction, and even the ICT and pharma sectors could be affected by the crisis.

One of the most concerning findings in the report relates to the ability of governments to intervene and provide a safety net for businesses as they did in the past. For comparison, during the COVID-19 period and following the war in Ukraine, European superpowers injected extensive fiscal support amounting to 2%–4% of GDP, a step that prevented a large wave of business collapses at the time. This time, government assistance is significantly lower; The highest assistance plan observed now is in Spain, and it stands at only about 0.3% of GDP, indicating that governments will not be able to absorb the current blow.

Michael Nakhmanovich, CEO of the credit insurance company Coface Israel, stated in reference to the data: "The data reflect a rise in the level of business risk: Companies are dealing with higher energy and input costs, tight credit conditions, and an erosion of demand, a combination that exerts direct pressure on profit margins and cash flow. In this reality, companies are required to re-examine commercial credit exposures, closely monitor the financial stability of customers and suppliers, and examine tools that will help reduce exposure to non-payment, protect cash flow, and make more informed business decisions. Even if energy prices moderate later on, following the emerging agreement between the US–and–Iran, the impact on businesses will not be immediate and high financing costs will continue to accompany many companies in the coming months."