Israel is gearing up for yet another offensive in Gaza. After Operation Gideon’s Chariots led to the conquest of about 75% of Gaza between May and July this year, the government now wants to conquer Gaza City.

Gaza City was never taken by the IDF in 22 months of fighting. This has allowed Hamas to continue to control Gaza.

Israeli leaders believe the battle of Gaza City might finally defeat Hamas. Nevertheless, they are also planning for a long battle in the urban area.

“An Israeli source said this week that the military will give Palestinians approximately two months to evacuate the densely populated area before the assault begins, setting a symbolic deadline of October 7, the two-year mark of the war,” CNN recently reported.

This would appear to mean that the battle for Gaza City won’t begin until late September or October. As such, the battle will be ongoing during the two-year anniversary of the October 7 massacre.

The reason for the challenge ahead is that Israel has refused to replace Hamas in Gaza. Although the IDF has taken over up to 75% of Gaza in recent operations, in every place the IDF takes control of, it either has to stay in the place, or Hamas will return.

In all cases, the IDF has called on civilians to evacuate. The IDF has no civilian authority in place to control or administer civilian areas of Gaza. Therefore, everywhere that civilians live in Gaza, they continue to be controlled by Hamas.

After 22 months of war, the two million Gazans still live under Hamas control. There is no alternative government structure.

The bombing of Nasser Hospital this week is an example of the problem. Nasser Hospital is in Khan Yunis. The IDF has cleared this area in the past. Then the IDF left and the area returned to Hamas rule.

“During the last week, the precise operation of the 98th Division and Shayetet 13 against the Hamas terrorist organization in the area of the Nasser Hospital was concluded,” the IDF said in February 2024. “During the operational activity, boxes of sealed medicines were found in the hospital with the names of Israeli hostages on them, large quantities of weapons were found, and about 200 terrorists and suspects in terrorist activities were detained.”

DESPITE THIS tactical success, the hospital and the area around it in Khan Yunis were returned to Hamas. Then the IDF had to retake Khan Yunis several times.

The IDF returned this May and June to retake areas it had already taken in 2024. Nasser Hospital, once cleared of terrorists, has reverted to become a war zone.

“Earlier today, IDF troops carried out a strike in the area of Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis,” the IDF reported Monday. “The chief of the General Staff [gave instructions] to conduct an initial inquiry as soon as possible. The IDF regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals and does not target journalists as such. The IDF acts to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals as much as possible while maintaining the safety of IDF troops.”

The Nasser Hospital strike is a symbol of the larger challenge of Gaza City. That several months into Operation Gideon’s Chariots there are still threats in Khan Yunis illustrates that the IDF has not actually pacified or cleared the 75% of Gaza that it has claimed to control.

In many areas, Hamas continues to try to infiltrate back or has, in fact, already infiltrated. In some cases, such as Beit Hanun, an area was left in the rear and not even cleared until this July. Then, when it was cleared, the entire town had to be flattened to remove Hamas.

This has appeared to be the only method that is seen as working in Gaza. It means removing the civilians and then flattening urban areas.

The reason for this is because there is no alternative civilian authority that can be put in place to run areas where Hamas is cleared. That means the areas are either completely destroyed, or they revert to Hamas. There is no alternative being presented for Gaza.

The upcoming Gaza City offensive will present the IDF with the same problem. The assumption that it will take months to evacuate civilians indicates there is no thought given to providing the civilians an alternative to Hamas rule.

Instead, they will be moved to an area run by Hamas. This will lead to the same challenge that led to Nasser Hospital continuing to be in the crosshairs of war after 22 months, despite being cleared of Hamas in the past.