• Nothing's Carl Pei has bad news about the RAM crisis
• "Phone prices are going up and they’ll keep going up into next year.”
• He adds that seasonal sales might not be as useful as in previous years

The RAM crisis feels like one of those problems that might one day — ideally soon — be solved, and consumer tech would return to a more reasonable cost. Unfortunately, yet another industry expert — this time the CEO of Nothing, Carl Pei — says prices might be as good as they’ll get for a while. And that we’re better off acting fast to avoid disappointment.

In a post on social media, Pei explained that “Memory is now the most expensive component in a smartphone," adding that it “can account for more than 50% of the total hardware bill.” As a result, “phone prices are going up,” Pei says, “and they’ll keep going up into next year.”

His post ends saying, “If you've been waiting to upgrade a device, the best time was yesterday. The next best time is now. This year's sale season won't have the discounts people are used to.”

That might mean Black Friday — and the surrounding sales the end of the year brings — might not usher in the level of discounts we’re used to. As some older tech prices rise — like the recent hikes to the PS5, Steam Deck, and others — it’s possible end-of-year sales might only return gadgets to their pre-hike cost, or worse yet, offer a discount that falls short of that pre-hike level.

Pei’s warning echoes that of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who predicted at a recent event that the ongoing memory shortage is a crisis that'll last for "quite a few years", however an ex-Samsung boss — Kye-hyun Kyung, who was the head of Samsung's semiconductor business just a couple of years ago — predicts RAM costs may soften by late 2027, or early 2028, thanks to Chinese companies expanding the RAM output.

Additionally, Kyung noted that if the AI boom slows, investment and demand for RAM may stall, helping lower costs amid an influx of Chinese supply and a dip in demand.

When's the best time to buy new tech?

Of course, this is all speculation. While Chinese chips may be on the way it’s possible countries like the US may impose import bans or extreme tariffs to counter them (especially if they pose a risk to American companies like Nvidia), and it’s possible they won’t be as desirable as Kyung predicts if they can’t match the performance of their rivals — though for budget-friendly tech cheap and slightly worse chips would be better than nothing.

At the same time, Huang and Pei’s RAM crisis warnings come with baggage. Nvidia’ massive stock price gains are in part because RAM and other component prices used by AI are on the up, Huang doesn’t want companies waiting and hoping for a better deal, he wants them buying more Nvidia chips now out of fear costs will go up.

Similarly, Pei doesn’t want consumers waiting to buy tech when it’s on sale or when prices drop; he wants them to buy Nothing’s phones now to help the company recoup the higher costs it has paid to make the current lineup.

If you’re feeling strapped for cash but in need of a tech upgrade, the middle ground option might be to wait just a week. That’s because starting June 23, we’ll hit Prime Day and get a flavor for what this year’s sales could look like.

While Amazon has a proper event, other retailers around the world will slash prices to compete with the global shopping giant. Black Friday usually sees deeper discounts and more accessible deals that don’t require a Prime membership, but Prime Day — and whether it’s what we expected, worse than usual, or better than usual — should give us a hint at what Black Friday has in store.

Alternatively, it could offer you a prime sweet spot. Giving you a chance to buy tech now at a reduced rate before it climbs higher, as Pei and Huang predict.

Unfortunately, there’s no single right answer to this conundrum, given the many unknowns. Even beyond RAM, we’re seeing SSD prices rise, so even if one crisis ends, another could be in full swing, and if there is some kind of AI bubble pop, costs won’t drop instantly, as many companies have preordered their components to lock-in pricing and availability ahead of time — meaning inflated prices will stick around for a while even in the best-case scenario.

Hopefully, some light is coming at the end of this RAM crisis tunnel — I have my fingers crossed, but I’m not holding my breath.

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Hamish is a Senior Staff Writer for TechRadar and you’ll see his name appearing on articles across nearly every topic on the site from smart home deals to speaker reviews to graphics card news and everything in between. He uses his broad range of knowledge to help explain the latest gadgets and if they’re a must-buy or a fad fueled by hype. Though his specialty is writing about everything going on in the world of virtual reality and augmented reality.