‘Only markets in three categories – infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access and network security – are broadly positioned for clear growth,’ finds Forrester.

Worries of a ‘SaaSpocalypse’ miss the bigger picture, says market research firm Forrester, which finds that AI’s impact on the service industry is anything but uniform.

Its new data-driven AI disruption model, a platform built on its in-depth research into the market, confirms a few widely recognised beliefs.

First, many of the enterprise software categories affected by AI will be reshaped rather than displaced.

The need for services to support in embedding technology into workflows, regulatory requirements and switching costs, alongside the growing demand for data, orchestration, governance and trust capabilities, will keep these support sectors relevant despite the heavy disruption they may face.

Second, the sectors most likely to invest in and succeed in the AI era are, unsurprisingly, those in the data, agentic, network, infrastructure and security sectors.

Sectors poised for success look to be those providing the infrastructure, data, governance, trust, and security capabilities that underpin AI adoption – rather than AI application vendors – as businesses move from experimenting with the technology to deploying it across their organisations.

These AI ‘enablers’ include cloud platforms, data centre and storage providers, and creators of AI models and platforms. Cybersecurity and identity providers are also expected to profit.

In comparison, skills-based services will face disruption as AI is expected to assume tasks that traditionally depended on human knowledge, according to Forrester.

Its model finds sectors including technology implementation, software development, creative services, localisation and training to be among those expected to come under strong pressure.

“Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul,” said Craig Le Clair, vice-president and principal analyst at Forrester, who co-authored the research.

“Our research shows that AI’s benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories – infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access and network security – are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt.”

Ted Schadler, vice-president and principal analyst and the research’s other co-author, said: “The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets.”

Forrester’s new model analyses the impact of AI on 17 technology and service categories spanning more than 200 markets across factors including AI substitutability, labour intensity, support for agentic workloads, commercial models, data and trust advantages, agentic workload support, AI-focused R&D investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity and switching costs.

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