The weather-roiling El Niño that emerged across the Pacific last month has continued to build and will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, the US Climate Prediction Center said.
Sea surface temperatures of 1C (1.8F) or more, the hallmark of the phenomenon, have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and there’s an 81% chance it will become a very strong El Niño and rank among the “largest events in the historical record going back to 1950,” the agency said in its monthly forecast.
“Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center said. El Niño “will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.”
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El Niño is closely watched by traders, markets and governments because it offers seasonal insight into weather extremes that can trigger floods, droughts, cold snaps and alter hurricane and typhoon activity across the Atlantic and Pacific. El Niño strengthens wind shear in the Caribbean, disrupting developing tropical storms and hurricanes during the six-month season that began June 1.
Elsewhere, it typically brings cooler, wetter winters to the southern US while increasing the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia.
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AccuWeather reduced its forecast for named storms across the Atlantic to 8 to 14 on Tuesday, down from 11 to 16 the commercial forecaster predicted in March, according to a statement. The 30-year average across the Atlantic is for 14 storms to be named, which happens when they reach tropical storm strength.
There is only a 3% chance the Pacific will return to normal in early spring and no possibility a La Niña, when the ocean cools, will happen.
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