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Unit 42

Software Design: Tidy First?

Reject Change, Sometimes Baking a Model Speculative Short Volatility & Neglectful Short Volatility Canon 3X: Explore/Expand/Extract How Do You Know That? Long Vol: What is Volatility? Long Volatility Development The Beginnings of an Idea: XP is Long Volatility When Complaints Are Good News Air Traffic Control The Cost YAGNI Was Never About Why So Literal? Smalltalk Genie Hey, N00b, We Didn't Hire You to Complete Tasks A Learning System Made of Learning Parts You Don't Get to Create Anything Trust Factory Genie Lessons from Genie Sessions: Prose as a Programming Language Scope Is The Steering Wheel Itchy Brain Thinkies World Congress II: May 20, 2026 Thinkie: Wider Scope Thoughts, Not Thinking? Did We Do This to Ourselves? Adaptive Radix Tree Genie Sessions: Run, Right, and Fast for the Adaptive Radix Tree Unstick Your Stuck Thinking Genie Tarpit Genie Lessons: Nobody Wants Agents Passing Tests Bore Me
Busy is Short Volatility
Kent Beck · 2026-08-13 · via Software Design: Tidy First?

The brutal tyranny of the Kingman Formula

We’ve talked about:

  • Volatility & how it shows up in software development

  • What it means to go short or long volatility

Today we’re going to talk about one of the most hidden ways of going short volatility & its counter-intuitive mathematical basis—the Kingman Formula.

The Problem

We’re taking our cue today from queueing theory. In our model of the world we ha…

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