Novel metaphor comprehension involves complex semantic processes and linguistic creativity, making it an interesting task for studying language models (LMs). This study investigates whether surprisal, a probabilistic measure of predictability in LMs, correlates with annotations of metaphor novelty in different datasets. We analyse the surprisal of metaphoric words in corpus-based and synthetic metaphor datasets using 16 causal LM variants. We propose a cloze-style surprisal method that conditions on full-sentence context. Results show that LM surprisal yields significant moderate correlations with scores/labels of metaphor novelty. We further identify divergent scaling patterns: on corpus-based data, correlation strength decreases with model size (inverse scaling effect), whereas on synthetic data it increases (quality-power hypothesis). We conclude that while surprisal can partially account for annotations of metaphor novelty, it remains limited as a metric of linguistic creativity. Code and data are publicly available: https://github.com/OmarMomen14/surprisal-metaphor-novelty