We introduce a new analytical framework, developed based on the spatial network calculus, for performance assessment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks. Specifically, we model the satellites' spatial positions as a strong ball-regulated point process on the sphere. Under this model, proximal points in space exhibit a locally repulsive property, reflecting the fact that intersatellite links are protected by a safety distance and would not be arbitrarily close. Subsequently, we derive analytical lower bounds on the conditional coverage probabilities under Nakagami-$m$ and Rayleigh fading, respectively. These expressions have a low computational complexity, enabling efficient numerical evaluations. We validate the effectiveness of our theoretical model by contrasting the coverage probability obtained from our analysis with that estimated from a Starlink constellation. The results show that our analysis provides a tight lower bound on the actual value and, surprisingly, matches the empirical simulations almost perfectly with a 1 dB shift. This demonstrates our framework as an appropriate theoretical model for LEO satellite networks.