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cs.IT updates on arXiv.org

Theoretical Limits of Language Model Alignment $f$-Divergence Regularized RLHF: Two Tales of Sampling and Unified Analyses A Unified Measure-Theoretic View of Diffusion, Score-Based, and Flow Matching Generative Models When Can Voting Help, Hurt, or Change Course? Exact Structure of Binary Test-Time Aggregation When Semantic Communication Meets Queueing: Cross-Layer Latency and Task Fidelity Optimization Convexity in Disguise: A Theoretical Framework for Nonconvex Low-Rank Matrix Estimation Conditional Diffusion Under Linear Constraints: Langevin Mixing and Information-Theoretic Guarantees Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Expert Routing for Communication-Efficient MoE via Finite Expert Banks Contextual Memory-Enhanced Source Coding for Low-SNR Communications Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Leveraging Code Automorphisms for Improved Syndrome-Based Neural Decoding A Hierarchical Sampling Framework for bounding the Generalization Error of Federated Learning Dueling DDQN-Based Adaptive Multi-Objective Handover Optimization for LEO Satellite Networks The Causal Description Gap: Information-Theoretic Separations Across Pearl's Hierarchy Optimization of CV-QKD Under Practical Constraints Benchmarking Wireless Representations: High-Dimensional vs. Compressed Embeddings for Efficiency and Robustness Real-Time Text Transmission via LLM-Based Entropy Coding over Fixed-Rate Channels SwiftChannel: Algorithm-Hardware Co-Design for Deep Learning-Based 5G Channel Estimation Evolving Token Communication with Parametric Memory Network Remote Action Generation: Remote Control with Minimal Communication The (Marginal) Value of a Search Ad: An Online Causal Framework for Repeated Second-price Auctions Stabilizing Private LASSO under Heterogeneous Covariates via Anisotropic Objective Perturbation Linear-Readout Floors and Threshold Recovery in Computation in Superposition Soft Graph Diffusion Transformer for MIMO Detection Hierarchical Federated Learning for Networked AI: From Communication Saving to Architecture-Aware Design Exponential families from a single KL identity MIFair: A Mutual-Information Framework for Intersectionality and Multiclass Fairness Diffusion-OAMP for Joint Image Compression and Wireless Transmission Decoupled Descent: Exact Test Error Tracking Via Approximate Message Passing
How did Donald Trump Surprisingly Win the 2016 United Sta...
Weiyu Xu, Lifeng Lai, Amin Khajehnejad · 2019-01-01 · via cs.IT updates on arXiv.org

Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we study the inaccuracies of opinion polls in the 2016 election through the lens of information theory. We first propose a general framework of parameter estimation, called clean sensing (polling), which performs optimal parameter estimation with sensing cost constraints, from heterogeneous and potentially distorted data sources. We then cast the opinion polling as a problem of parameter estimation from potentially distorted heterogeneous data sources, and derive the optimal polling strategy using heterogenous and possibly distorted data under cost constraints. Our results show that a larger number of data samples do not necessarily lead to better polling accuracy, which give a possible explanation of the inaccuracies of opinion polls in 2016. The optimal sensing strategy should instead optimally allocate sensing resources over heterogenous data sources according to several factors including data quality, and, moreover, for a particular data source, it should strike an optimal balance between the quality of data samples, and the quantity of data samples. As a byproduct of this research, in a general setting, we derive a group of new lower bounds on the mean-squared errors of general unbiased and biased parameter estimators. These new lower bounds can be tighter than the classical Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) and Chapman-Robbins bound. Our derivations are via studying the Lagrange dual problems of certain convex programs. The classical Cramér-Rao bound and Chapman-Robbins bound follow naturally from our results for special cases of these convex programs.