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From Top-1 to Top-K: A Reproducibility Study and Benchmarking of Counterfactual Explanations for Recommender Systems Impact of large language models on peer review opinions from a fine-grained perspective: Evidence from top conference proceedings in AI Diagnosable ColBERT: Debugging Late-Interaction Retrieval Models Using a Learned Latent Space as Reference Enhancing Unsupervised Keyword Extraction in Academic Papers through Integrating Highlights with Abstract CAST: Modeling Semantic-Level Transitions for Complementary-Aware Sequential Recommendation IndiaFinBench: An Evaluation Benchmark for Large Language Model Performance on Indian Financial Regulatory Text Think Before Writing: Feature-Level Multi-Objective Optimization for Generative Citation Visibility RARE: Redundancy-Aware Retrieval Evaluation Framework for High-Similarity Corpora Personalized Benchmarking: Evaluating LLMs by Individual Preferences Modular Representation Compression: Adapting LLMs for Efficient and Effective Recommendations JFinTEB: Japanese Financial Text Embedding Benchmark UsefulBench: Towards Decision-Useful Information as a Target for Information Retrieval SIMMER: Cross-Modal Food Image--Recipe Retrieval via MLLM-Based Embedding Rethinking the Necessity of Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation through the Lens of Adaptive Listwise Ranking BioHiCL: Hierarchical Multi-Label Contrastive Learning for Biomedical Retrieval with MeSH Labels Learning Behaviorally Grounded Item Embeddings via Personalized Temporal Contexts Collaborative Filtering Through Weighted Similarities of User and Item Embeddings IG-Search: Step-Level Information Gain Rewards for Search-Augmented Reasoning Metric-agnostic Learning-to-Rank via Boosting and Rank Approximation GenRec: A Preference-Oriented Generative Framework for Large-Scale Recommendation Uncertainty-aware Generative Learning Path Recommendation with Cognition-Adaptive Diffusion CPGRec+: A Balance-oriented Framework for Personalized Video Game Recommendations Don't Retrieve, Navigate: Distilling Enterprise Knowledge into Navigable Agent Skills for QA and RAG NewsTorch: A PyTorch-based Toolkit for Learner-oriented News Recommendation Controlling Authority Retrieval: A Missing Retrieval Objective for Authority-Governed Knowledge APEX-MEM: Agentic Semi-Structured Memory with Temporal Reasoning for Long-Term Conversational AI ID and Graph View Contrastive Learning with Multi-View Attention Fusion for Sequential Recommendation Large Language Models to Enhance Business Process Modeling: Past, Present, and Future Trends Dual-Enhancement Product Bundling: Bridging Interactive Graph and Large Language Model Evaluation of Agents under Simulated AI Marketplace Dynamics
Scattered Hypothesis Generation for Open-Ended Event Fore...
He Chang, Zhulin Tao, Lifang Yang, Xianglin Huang, Yunshan Ma · 2026-04-17 · via cs.IR updates on arXiv.org

Despite the importance of open-ended event forecasting for risk management, current LLM-based methods predominantly target only the most probable outcomes, neglecting the intrinsic uncertainty of real-world events. To bridge this gap, we advance open-ended event forecasting from pinpoint forecasting to scatter forecasting by introducing the proxy task of hypothesis generation. This paradigm aims to generate an inclusive and diverse set of hypotheses that broadly cover the space of plausible future events. To this end, we propose SCATTER, a reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes inclusiveness and diversity of the hypothesis. Specifically, we design a novel hybrid reward that consists of three components: 1) a validity reward that measures semantic alignment with observed events, 2) an intra-group diversity reward to encourage variation within sampled responses, and 3) an inter-group diversity reward to promote exploration across distinct modes. By integrating the validity-gated score into the overall objective, we confine the exploration of wildly diversified outcomes to contextually plausible futures, preventing the mode collapse issue. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets, i.e., OpenForecast and OpenEP, demonstrate that SCATTER significantly outperforms strong baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Sambac1/SCATTER.