惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

博客园_首页
Vercel News
Vercel News
月光博客
月光博客
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
A
About on SuperTechFans
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
U
Unit 42
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
B
Blog RSS Feed
Y
Y Combinator Blog
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
小众软件
小众软件
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
G
Google Developers Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
P
Proofpoint News Feed
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
F
Fortinet All Blogs
博客园 - 【当耐特】
I
InfoQ

cs.IR updates on arXiv.org

From Top-1 to Top-K: A Reproducibility Study and Benchmarking of Counterfactual Explanations for Recommender Systems Impact of large language models on peer review opinions from a fine-grained perspective: Evidence from top conference proceedings in AI Diagnosable ColBERT: Debugging Late-Interaction Retrieval Models Using a Learned Latent Space as Reference Enhancing Unsupervised Keyword Extraction in Academic Papers through Integrating Highlights with Abstract CAST: Modeling Semantic-Level Transitions for Complementary-Aware Sequential Recommendation IndiaFinBench: An Evaluation Benchmark for Large Language Model Performance on Indian Financial Regulatory Text Think Before Writing: Feature-Level Multi-Objective Optimization for Generative Citation Visibility RARE: Redundancy-Aware Retrieval Evaluation Framework for High-Similarity Corpora Personalized Benchmarking: Evaluating LLMs by Individual Preferences Modular Representation Compression: Adapting LLMs for Efficient and Effective Recommendations JFinTEB: Japanese Financial Text Embedding Benchmark UsefulBench: Towards Decision-Useful Information as a Target for Information Retrieval SIMMER: Cross-Modal Food Image--Recipe Retrieval via MLLM-Based Embedding Rethinking the Necessity of Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation through the Lens of Adaptive Listwise Ranking BioHiCL: Hierarchical Multi-Label Contrastive Learning for Biomedical Retrieval with MeSH Labels Learning Behaviorally Grounded Item Embeddings via Personalized Temporal Contexts Collaborative Filtering Through Weighted Similarities of User and Item Embeddings IG-Search: Step-Level Information Gain Rewards for Search-Augmented Reasoning Metric-agnostic Learning-to-Rank via Boosting and Rank Approximation GenRec: A Preference-Oriented Generative Framework for Large-Scale Recommendation Uncertainty-aware Generative Learning Path Recommendation with Cognition-Adaptive Diffusion CPGRec+: A Balance-oriented Framework for Personalized Video Game Recommendations Don't Retrieve, Navigate: Distilling Enterprise Knowledge into Navigable Agent Skills for QA and RAG NewsTorch: A PyTorch-based Toolkit for Learner-oriented News Recommendation Controlling Authority Retrieval: A Missing Retrieval Objective for Authority-Governed Knowledge APEX-MEM: Agentic Semi-Structured Memory with Temporal Reasoning for Long-Term Conversational AI ID and Graph View Contrastive Learning with Multi-View Attention Fusion for Sequential Recommendation Large Language Models to Enhance Business Process Modeling: Past, Present, and Future Trends Dual-Enhancement Product Bundling: Bridging Interactive Graph and Large Language Model Evaluation of Agents under Simulated AI Marketplace Dynamics
Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han, Jacob Steinhardt · 2024-02-29 · via cs.IR updates on arXiv.org

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.