惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

B
Blog
量子位
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Jina AI
Jina AI
雷峰网
雷峰网
博客园_首页
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
博客园 - 司徒正美
爱范儿
爱范儿
博客园 - 聂微东
IT之家
IT之家
美团技术团队
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
博客园 - Franky
V
V2EX
GbyAI
GbyAI
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Epistemic confidence, the Dutch Book and relevant subsets
Yudi Pawitan, Hangbin Lee, Youngjo Lee · 2021-04-30 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We use a logical device called the Dutch Book to establish epistemic confidence, defined as the sense of confidence \emph{in an observed} confidence interval. This epistemic property is unavailable -- or even denied -- in orthodox frequentist inference. In financial markets, including the betting market, the Dutch Book is also known as arbitrage or risk-free profitable transaction. A numerical confidence is deemed epistemic if its use as a betting price is protected from the Dutch Book by an external agent. Theoretically, to construct the Dutch Book, the agent must exploit unused information available in any relevant subset. Pawitan and Lee (2021) showed that confidence is an extended likelihood, and the likelihood principle states that the likelihood contains all the information in the data, hence leaving no relevant subset. Intuitively, this implies that confidence associated with the full likelihood is protected from the Dutch Book, and hence is epistemic. Our aim is to provide the theoretical support for this intuitive notion.