惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

I
InfoQ
G
Google Developers Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
月光博客
月光博客
博客园 - 聂微东
博客园 - Franky
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
A
About on SuperTechFans
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
U
Unit 42
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
F
Fortinet All Blogs
H
Help Net Security
J
Java Code Geeks
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
博客园 - 叶小钗
L
LangChain Blog
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Probabilistic interval predictor based on dissimilarity f...
A. Daniel Carnerero, Daniel R. Ramirez, Teodoro Alamo · 2020-10-29 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This work presents a new methodology to obtain probabilistic interval predictions of a dynamical system. The proposed strategy uses stored past system measurements to estimate the future evolution of the system. The method relies on the use of dissimilarity functions to estimate the conditional probability density function of the outputs. A family of empirical probability density functions, parameterized by means of two scalars, is introduced. It is shown that the proposed family encompasses the multivariable normal probability density function as a particular case. We show that the presented approach constitutes a generalization of classical estimation methods. A validation scheme is used to tune the two parameters on which the methodology relies. In order to prove the effectiveness of the presented methodology, some numerical examples and comparisons are provided.