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Optimal Experimental Design for Partially Observable Pure...
Ali Eshragh, Matthew P. Skerritt, Bruno Salvy, Thomas McCallum · 2024-02-15 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We develop an efficient algorithm to find optimal observation times by maximizing the Fisher information for the birth rate of a partially observable pure birth process involving $n$ observations. Partially observable implies that at each of the $n$ observation time points for counting the number of individuals present in the pure birth process, each individual is observed independently with a fixed probability $p$, modeling detection difficulties or constraints on resources. We apply concepts and techniques from generating functions, using a combination of symbolic and numeric computation, to establish a recursion for evaluating and optimizing the Fisher information. Our numerical results reveal the efficacy of this new method. An implementation of the algorithm is available publicly.