惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Vercel News
Vercel News
B
Blog
腾讯CDC
P
Proofpoint News Feed
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
L
LangChain Blog
F
Fortinet All Blogs
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
I
InfoQ
IT之家
IT之家
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
D
DataBreaches.Net
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
The Cloudflare Blog
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
T
Tailwind CSS Blog

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Asymptotic theory for the likelihood-based block maxima m...
David L. Carl, Simone A. Padoan, Stefano Rizzelli · 2025-06-21 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper develops a rigorous asymptotic framework for likelihood-based inference in the Block Maxima (BM) method for stationary time series. While Bayesian inference under the BM approach has been widely studied in the independence setting, no asymptotic theory currently exists for time series. Further results are needed to establish that BM method can be applied with the kind of dependent time series models relevant to applied fields. To address this gap we first establish a comprehensive likelihood theory for the misspecified Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model under serial dependence. Our results include uniform convergence of the empirical log-likelihood process, contraction rates for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and a local asymptotically Gaussian expansion. Building on this foundation, we develop the asymptotic theory of Bayesian inference for the GEV parameters, the extremal index, $T$-time-horizon return levels, and extreme quantiles (Value at Risk). Under general conditions on the prior, we prove posterior consistency, $\sqrt{k}$-contraction rates, Bernstein-von Mises theorems, and asymptotic coverage properties for credible intervals. For inference on the extremal index, we propose an adjusted posterior distribution that corrects for poor coverage exhibited by a naive Bayesian approach. Simulations show excellent inferential performances for the proposed methodology.