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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Hypothesis testing and confidence sets: why Bayesian not ...
Roger Sewell · 2021-12-21 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker common-sense criteria for solutions to inference problems, all failed by these frequentist methods but satisfied by any admissible method. We note that pseudo-Bayesian methods made by handicapping Bayesian methods to satisfy criteria on type I error rate makes them frequentist not Bayesian in nature. We give five examples showing the differences between Bayesian and frequentist methods; the first requiring little calculus, the second showing in abstract what is wrong with these frequentist methods, the third to illustrate information conservation, the fourth to show that the same problems arise in everyday statistical problems, and the fifth to illustrate how on some real-life inference problems Bayesian methods require less data than fixed sample-size (resp. pseudo-Bayesian) frequentist hypothesis testing by factors exceeding 3000 (resp 300) without recourse to informative priors. To address the issue of different parties with opposing interests reaching agreement on a prior, we illustrate the beneficial effects of a Bayesian "Let the data decide" policy both on results under a wide variety of conditions and on motivation to reach a common prior by consent. We show that in general the frequentist confidence level contains less relevant Shannon information than the Bayesian posterior, and give an example where no deterministic frequentist critical regions give any relevant information even though the Bayesian posterior contains up to the maximum possible amount. In contrast use of the Bayesian prior allows construction of non-deterministic critical regions for which the Bayesian posterior can be recovered from the frequentist confidence.