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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning 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Spatial+: a novel approach to spatial confounding
Emiko Dupont, Simon N. Wood, Nicole Augustin · 2020-09-20 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In spatial regression models, collinearity between covariates and spatial effects can lead to significant bias in effect estimates. This problem, known as spatial confounding, is encountered modelling forestry data to assess the effect of temperature on tree health. Reliable inference is difficult as results depend on whether or not spatial effects are included in the model. The mechanism behind spatial confounding is poorly understood and methods for dealing with it are limited. We propose a novel approach, spatial+, in which collinearity is reduced by replacing the covariates in the spatial model by their residuals after spatial dependence has been regressed away. Using a thin plate spline model formulation, we recognise spatial confounding as a smoothing-induced bias identified by Rice (1986), and through asymptotic analysis of the effect estimates, we show that spatial+ avoids the bias problems of the spatial model. This is also demonstrated in a simulation study. Spatial+ is straight-forward to implement using existing software and, as the response variable is the same as that of the spatial model, standard model selection criteria can be used for comparisons. A major advantage of the method is also that it extends to models with non-Gaussian response distributions. Finally, while our results are derived in a thin plate spline setting, the spatial+ methodology transfers easily to other spatial model formulations.