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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Asymmetric predictability in causal discovery: an informa...
Soumik Purkayastha, Peter X. K. Song · 2022-10-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Causal investigations in observational studies pose a great challenge in research where randomized trials or intervention-based studies are not feasible. We develop an information geometric causal discovery and inference framework of "predictive asymmetry". For $(X, Y)$, predictive asymmetry enables assessment of whether $X$ is more likely to cause $Y$ or vice-versa. The asymmetry between cause and effect becomes particularly simple if $X$ and $Y$ are deterministically related. We propose a new metric called the Directed Mutual Information ($DMI$) and establish its key statistical properties. $DMI$ is not only able to detect complex non-linear association patterns in bivariate data, but also is able to detect and infer causal relations. Our proposed methodology relies on scalable non-parametric density estimation using Fourier transform. The resulting estimation method is manyfold faster than the classical bandwidth-based density estimation. We investigate key asymptotic properties of the $DMI$ methodology and a data-splitting technique is utilized to facilitate causal inference using the $DMI$. Through simulation studies and an application, we illustrate the performance of $DMI$.