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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models Direct Estimation of Schrödinger Bridge Time-Series Drifts: Finite-Sample, Asymptotic, and Adaptive Guarantees Information-theoretic Limits of Learning and Estimation Adaptivity Under Realizability Constraints: Comparing In-Context and Agentic Learning Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points Causal discovery under mean independence and linearity Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy On the Optimal Sample Complexity of Offline Multi-Armed Bandits with KL Regularization Extrapolation in Statistical Learning with Extreme Value Theory Adaptive Estimation and Inference in Semi-parametric Heterogeneous Clustered Multitask Learning via Neyman Orthogonality Beyond ECE: Calibrated Size Ratio, Risk Assessment, and Confidence-Weighted Metrics Self-Normalized Martingales and Uniform Regret Bounds for Linear Regression Mean Testing under Truncation beyond Gaussian Decoupled Descent: Exact Test Error Tracking Via Approximate Message Passing Hyper Input Convex Neural Networks for Shape Constrained Learning and Optimal Transport Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time Elite-Driven Support Vector Machines for Classification A Limit Theory of Foundation Models: A Mathematical Approach to Understanding Emergent Intelligence and Scaling Laws Learning Curves and Benign Overfitting of Spectral Algorithms in Large Dimensions Concave Statistical Utility Maximization Bandits via Influence-Function Gradients The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration Cover meets Robbins while 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Pass@k: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model Evaluation The Good, the Bad, and the Sampled: a No-Regret Approach to Safe Online Classification GOSPA and T-GOSPA quasi-metrics for evaluation of multi-object tracking algorithms A note on the unique properties of the Kullback--Leibler divergence for sampling via gradient flows Multi-Armed Bandits With Machine Learning-Generated Surrogate Rewards Efficient compression of neural networks and datasets Out-of-Distribution Generalization of In-Context Learning: A Low-Dimensional Subspace Perspective Super-fast Rates of Convergence for Neural Network Classifiers under the Hard Margin Condition Sharp Gaussian approximations for Decentralized Federated Learning Learning Operators by Regularized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Operator-valued Kernels Smoothed Analysis of Learning from Positive Samples Statistical Impossibility and Possibility of Aligning LLMs with Human Preferences: From Condorcet Paradox to Nash Equilibrium Sharp Risk 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Properties of Nested Sampling
2008-01-25 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is asymptotically Gaussian. We show that the asymptotic variance of the nested sampling approximation typically grows linearly with the dimension of the parameter. We discuss the applicability and efficiency of nested sampling in realistic problems, and we compare it with two current methods for computing marginal likelihood. We propose an extension that avoids resorting to Markov chain Monte Carlo to obtain the simulated points.

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