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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
An Empirical Bayes Perspective on Heteroskedastic Mean Es...
Yanjun Han, Abhishek Shetty, Jacob Shkrob · 2026-03-14 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Towards understanding the fundamental limits of estimation from data of varied quality, we study the problem of estimating a mean parameter from heteroskedastic Gaussian observations where the variances are unknown and may vary arbitrarily across observations. While a simple linear estimator with known variances attains the smallest mean squared error, estimation without this knowledge is challenging due to the large number of nuisance parameters. We propose a simple and principled approach based on empirical Bayes: model the observations as if they were i.i.d. from a normal scale mixture and compute the profile maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the mean, treating the nonparametric mixing distribution as nuisance. Our result shows that this estimator achieves near-optimal error bounds across various heteroskedastic models in the literature. In particular, for the subset-of-signals problem where an unknown subset of observations has small variance, our estimator adaptively achieves the minimax rate for all signal sizes, including the sharp phase transition, without any tuning parameters. One of our key technical steps is a sharper metric entropy bound for normal scale mixtures, obtained via Chebyshev approximations on a transformed polynomial basis. This approach yields an improved polylogarithmic, rather than polynomial, dependence on the variance ratio, which could be of independent interest.