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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A Heisenberg-esque Uncertainty Principle for Simultaneous...
Xiao-Li Meng · 2025-01-02 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

A highly cited and inspiring article by Bates et al (2024) demonstrates that the prediction errors estimated through cross-validation, Bootstrap or Mallow's $C_P$ can all be independent of the actual prediction errors. This essay hypothesizes that these occurrences signify a broader, Heisenberg-like uncertainty principle for learning: optimizing learning and assessing actual errors using the same data are fundamentally at odds. Only suboptimal learning preserves untapped information for actual error assessments, and vice versa, reinforcing the `no free lunch' principle. To substantiate this intuition, a Cramer-Rao-style lower bound is established under the squared loss, which shows that the relative regret in learning is bounded below by the square of the correlation between any unbiased error assessor and the actual learning error. Readers are invited to explore generalizations, develop variations, or even uncover genuine `free lunches.' The connection with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle is more than metaphorical, because both share an essence of the Cramer-Rao inequality: marginal variations cannot manifest individually to arbitrary degrees when their underlying co-variation is constrained, whether the co-variation is about individual states or their generating mechanisms, as in the quantum realm. A practical takeaway of such a learning principle is that it may be prudent to reserve some information specifically for error assessment rather than pursue full optimization in learning, particularly when intentional randomness is introduced to mitigate overfitting.