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Bayesian predictive inference without a prior
Patrizia Berti, Emanuela Dreassi, Fabrizio Leisen, Pietro Rigo, · 2021-04-23 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Let $(X_n:n\ge 1)$ be a sequence of random observations. Let $σ_n(\cdot)=P\bigl(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr)$ be the $n$-th predictive distribution and $σ_0(\cdot)=P(X_1\in\cdot)$ the marginal distribution of $X_1$. In a Bayesian framework, to make predictions on $(X_n)$, one only needs the collection $σ=(σ_n:n\ge 0)$. Because of the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, $σ$ can be assigned directly, without passing through the usual prior/posterior scheme. One main advantage is that no prior probability has to be selected. In this paper, $σ$ is subjected to two requirements: (i) The resulting sequence $(X_n)$ is conditionally identically distributed, in the sense of Berti, Pratelli and Rigo (2004); (ii) Each $σ_{n+1}$ is a simple recursive update of $σ_n$. Various new $σ$ satisfying (i)-(ii) are introduced and investigated. For such $σ$, the asymptotics of $σ_n$, as $n\rightarrow\infty$, is determined. In some cases, the probability distribution of $(X_n)$ is also evaluated.