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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A GARMA Framework for Unit-Bounded Time Series Based on t...
Guilherme Pumi, Danilo Hiroshi Matsuoka, Taiane Schaedler Prass · 2025-04-10 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The Unit-Lindley is a one-parameter family of distributions in $(0,1)$ obtained from an appropriate transformation of the Lindley distribution. In this work, we introduce a class of dynamical time series models for continuous random variables taking values in $(0,1)$ based on the Unit-Lindley distribution. The models pertaining to the proposed class are observation-driven ones for which, conditionally on a set of covariates, the random component is modeled by a Unit-Lindley distribution. The systematic component aims at modeling the conditional mean through a dynamical structure resembling the classical ARMA models. Parameter estimation in conducted using partial maximum likelihood, for which an asymptotic theory is available. Based on asymptotic results, the construction of confidence intervals, hypotheses testing, model selection, and forecasting can be carried on. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed partial maximum likelihood approach. Finally, an application considering forecasting of the proportion of net electricity generated by conventional hydroelectric power in the United States is presented. The application show the versatility of the proposed method compared to other benchmarks models in the literature.