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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Information-geometry of physics-informed statistical mani...
Francesca Boso, Daniel M. Tartakovsky · 2021-03-02 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The data-aware method of distributions (DA-MD) is a low-dimension data assimilation procedure to forecast the behavior of dynamical systems described by differential equations. It combines sequential Bayesian update with the MD, such that the former utilizes available observations while the latter propagates the (joint) probability distribution of the uncertain system state(s). The core of DA-MD is the minimization of a distance between an observation and a prediction in distributional terms, with prior and posterior distributions constrained on a statistical manifold defined by the MD. We leverage the information-geometric properties of the statistical manifold to reduce predictive uncertainty via data assimilation. Specifically, we exploit the information geometric structures induced by two discrepancy metrics, the Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Wasserstein distance, which explicitly yield natural gradient descent. To further accelerate optimization, we build a deep neural network as a surrogate model for the MD that enables automatic differentiation. The manifold's geometry is quantified without sampling, yielding an accurate approximation of the gradient descent direction. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that accounting for the information-geometry of the manifold significantly reduces the computational cost of data assimilation by facilitating the calculation of gradients and by reducing the number of required iterations. Both storage needs and computational cost depend on the dimensionality of a statistical manifold, which is typically small by MD construction. When convergence is achieved, the Kullback-Leibler and $L_2$ Wasserstein metrics have similar performances, with the former being more sensitive to poor choices of the prior.