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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Bayesian Poisson process partition calculus with an appli...
Lancelot F. James · 2005-08-16 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This article develops, and describes how to use, results concerning disintegrations of Poisson random measures. These results are fashioned as simple tools that can be tailor-made to address inferential questions arising in a wide range of Bayesian nonparametric and spatial statistical models. The Poisson disintegration method is based on the formal statement of two results concerning a Laplace functional change of measure and a Poisson Palm/Fubini calculus in terms of random partitions of the integers {1,...,n}. The techniques are analogous to, but much more general than, techniques for the Dirichlet process and weighted gamma process developed in [Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 351-357] and [Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 41 (1989) 227-245]. In order to illustrate the flexibility of the approach, large classes of random probability measures and random hazards or intensities which can be expressed as functionals of Poisson random measures are described. We describe a unified posterior analysis of classes of discrete random probability which identifies and exploits features common to all these models. The analysis circumvents many of the difficult issues involved in Bayesian nonparametric calculus, including a combinatorial component. This allows one to focus on the unique features of each process which are characterized via real valued functions h. The applicability of the technique is further illustrated by obtaining explicit posterior expressions for Lévy-Cox moving average processes within the general setting of multiplicative intensity models.