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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Quickest Change Detection with Controlled Sensing
Venugopal V. Veeravalli, Georgios Fellouris, George V. Moustakid · 2023-10-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In the problem of quickest change detection, a change occurs at some unknown time in the distribution of a sequence of random vectors that are monitored in real time, and the goal is to detect this change as quickly as possible subject to a certain false alarm constraint. In this work we consider this problem in the presence of parametric uncertainty in the post-change regime and controlled sensing. That is, the post-change distribution contains an unknown parameter, and the distribution of each observation, before and after the change, is affected by a control action. In this context, in addition to a stopping rule that determines the time at which it is declared that the change has occurred, one also needs to determine a sequential control policy, which chooses the control action at each time based on the already collected observations. We formulate this problem mathematically using Lorden's minimax criterion, and assuming that there are finitely many possible actions and post-change parameter values. We then propose a specific procedure for this problem that employs an adaptive CuSum statistic in which (i) the estimate of the parameter is based on a fixed number of the more recent observations, and (ii) each action is selected to maximize the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the next observation based on the current parameter estimate, apart from a small number of exploration times. We show that this procedure, which we call the Windowed Chernoff-CuSum (WCC), is first-order asymptotically optimal under Lorden's minimax criterion, for every possible possible value of the unknown post-change parameter, as the mean time to false alarm goes to infinity. We also provide simulation results to illustrate the performance of the WCC procedure.