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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A Modelling Framework for Regression with Collinearity
Takeaki Kariya, Hiroshi Kurata, Takaki Hayashi · 2023-01-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This study addresses a fundamental, yet overlooked, gap between standard theory and empirical modelling practices in the OLS regression model $\boldsymbol{y}=\boldsymbol{Xβ}+\boldsymbol{u}$ with collinearity. In fact, while an estimated model in practice is desired to have stability and efficiency in its "individual OLS estimates", $\boldsymbol{y}$ itself has no capacity to identify and control the collinearity in $\boldsymbol{X}$ and hence no theory including model selection process (MSP) would fill this gap unless $\boldsymbol{X}$ is controlled in view of sampling theory. In this paper, first introducing a new concept of "empirically effective modelling" (EEM), we propose our EEM methodology (EEM-M) as an integrated process of two MSPs with data $(\boldsymbol{y^o,X})$ given. The first MSP uses $\boldsymbol{X}$ only, called the XMSP, and pre-selects a class $\scr{D}$ of models with individually inefficiency-controlled and collinearity-controlled OLS estimates, where the corresponding two controlling variables are chosen from predictive standard error of each estimate. Next, defining an inefficiency-collinearity risk index for each model, a partial ordering is introduced onto the set of models to compare without using $\boldsymbol{y^o}$, where the better-ness and admissibility of models are discussed. The second MSP is a commonly used MSP that uses $(\boldsymbol{y^o,X})$, and evaluates total model performance as a whole by such AIC, BIC, etc. to select an optimal model from $\scr{D}$. Third, to materialize the XMSP, two algorithms are proposed.