惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

WordPress大学
WordPress大学
G
Google Developers Blog
小众软件
小众软件
V
V2EX
月光博客
月光博客
腾讯CDC
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
J
Java Code Geeks
Y
Y Combinator Blog
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
B
Blog RSS Feed
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
博客园 - 【当耐特】
D
Docker
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
I
InfoQ
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
Jina AI
Jina AI

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Higher Order Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Mark van der Laan, Zeyi Wang, Lars van der Laan · 2021-01-16 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Asymptotic efficiency of targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) of target features of the data distribution relies on a a second order remainder being asymptotically negligible. In previous work we proposed a nonparametric MLE termed Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) which parametrizes the relevant functional of the data distribution in terms of a multivariate real valued cadlag function that is assumed to have finite variation norm. We showed that the HAL-MLE converges in Kullback-Leibler dissimilarity at a rate n-1/3 up till logn factors. Therefore, by using HAL as initial density estimator in the TMLE, the resulting HAL-TMLE is an asymptotically efficient estimator only assuming that the relevant nuisance functions of the data density are cadlag and have finite variation norm. However, in finite samples, the second order remainder can dominate the sampling distribution so that inference based on asymptotic normality would be anti-conservative. In this article we propose a new higher order TMLE, generalizing the regular first order TMLE. We prove that it satisfies an exact linear expansion, in terms of efficient influence functions of sequentially defined higher order fluctuations of the target parameter, with a remainder that is a k+1th order remainder. As a consequence, this k-th order TMLE allows statistical inference only relying on the k+1th order remainder being negligible. We also provide a rationale for the higher order TMLE that it will be superior to the first order TMLE by (iteratively) locally minimizing the exact finite sample remainder of the first order TMLE. The second order TMLE is demonstrated for nonparametric estimation of the integrated squared density and for the treatment specific mean outcome. We also provide an initial simulation study for the second order TMLE of the treatment specific mean confirming the theoretical analysis.