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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
The relative value of interventional and observational sa...
Valentinian Lungu, Anish Dhir, Mark van der Wilk, Ioannis Kontoy · 2026-03-27 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian bivariate causal discovery for Gaussian Linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs) with heteroscedastic noise. We demonstrate that with purely observational data, the posterior distribution over the models fails to consistently identify the true causal structure - a consequence of the fundamental non-identifiability within the Markov Equivalence Class. Specifically, if the true generating mechanism corresponds to a connected graph (A -> B or B -> A), the asymptotic behavior of the posterior is given by the ratio between the prior on the true model and the push-forward prior of the alternative. In contrast, for the independence model, we establish that the posterior concentrates at a stochastic polynomial rate of O_p(n^{-1/2}). To resolve this non-identifiability, we incorporate m interventional samples and characterize the concentration rates as a function of the observational-to-total sample ratio, η. We identify a sharp concentration dichotomy: while the independence graph maintains a polynomial O_p(N^{-1/2}) rate (where N = n+m), connected graphs undergo a phase transition to exponentially fast convergence. This highlights an exponential relative importance between the two data types, as altering the amount of one data type directly changes the exponent governing the concentration speed. We derive explicit formulae for the exponential decay rates and provide precise conditions under which mixing observational and interventional data optimizes concentration speed. Finally, our theoretical findings are validated through empirical simulations in Bayesian Gaussian equivalent (BGe)-style prior specifications offering a principled foundation for experimental design in Bayesian causal discovery.