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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Moment Martingale Posteriors for Semiparametric Predictiv...
Yiu Yin Yung, Stephen M. S. Lee, Edwin Fong · 2025-07-24 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are either nonparametric or parametric, but not a combination of the two. This paper introduces a semiparametric martingale posterior which utilizes a predictive distribution that is a mixture of a parametric and nonparametric component. The semiparametric nature of the predictive allows for regularization of the nonparametric component when the sample size is small, and robustness to model misspecification of the parametric component when the sample size is large. We call this approach the moment martingale posterior, as the core of our proposed methodology is to utilize the method of moments as the vehicle for tying the nonparametric and parametric components together. In particular, the predictives are constructed so that the moments are martingales, which allows us to verify convergence under predictive resampling. A key contribution of this work is a novel procedure based on the energy score to optimally weigh between the parametric and nonparametric components, which has desirable asymptotic properties. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through simulations and a real world example.