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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Safe and Sharp Honest Inference for Nonparametric Estimat...
Zihao Yuan, Sven Klaassen · 2026-05-05 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Calibration of an honest confidence interval means choosing, for each $α\in(0,1)$, how the corresponding $α$-critical value is converted into a radius yielding coverage probability at least $1-α$. Standard-normal critical-value calibration (SNC) is the default route for many confidence intervals based on nonparametric smoothers in nonparametric econometrics. However, this calibration method creates a structural difficulty: the normalization yielding a limiting distribution also makes a small estimation bias become a non-negligible inferential bias. We take a different calibration route by combining the tail control of empirical Bernstein inequalities with a fixed-length-radius optimization from bias-aware inference. We establish the formal theory in canonical scalar-covariate regression and density settings, with the regression theory ranging from local-polynomial to weighted-average estimators. The resulting empirical Bernstein confidence intervals (EBCIs) are "safe" and "sharp". Safety means that, uniformly over functions with some $S$-th order local smoothness, both one-sided and two-sided intervals attain the nominal coverage level up to a remainder $o(n^{-\frac{2S}{2S+1}})$, or an exponential remainder in bounded or sub-Gaussian settings. Sharpness means that interval widths shrink at the minimax rate $n^{-\frac{S}{2S+1}}$. Moreover, in the small-$α$ regime, the EBCI radius is first-order aligned with the radii of bias-aware fixed-length confidence intervals. Thus, EBCI safely converts correctly specified smoothness into both coverage accuracy and interval-length efficiency. The contribution is not a new bias-control approach, but a new calibration principle for the radius of a confidence interval. The method can be combined with existing ideas such as bias-aware inference (BA) and robust bias correction (RBC), while avoiding the bias inflation induced by SNC.