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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Early Detection of Treatments Side Effect: A Sequential A...
Jiayue Wang, Ben Boukai · 2024-01-25 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

With the emergence and spread of infectious diseases with pandemic potential, such as COVID- 19, the urgency for vaccine development have led to unprecedented compressed and accelerated schedules that shortened the standard development timeline. In a relatively short time, the leading pharmaceutical companies1, received an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for vaccine\prime s en-mass deployment To monitor the potential side effect(s) of the vaccine during the (initial) vaccination campaign, we developed an optimal sequential test that allows for the early detection of potential side effect(s). This test employs a rule to stop the vaccination process once the observed number of side effect incidents exceeds a certain (pre-determined) threshold. The optimality of the proposed sequential test is justified when compared with the (α, β) optimality of the non-randomized fixed-sample Uniformly Most Powerful (UMP) test. In the case of a single side effect, we study the properties of the sequential test and derive the exact expressions of the Average Sample Number (ASN) curve of the stopping time (and its variance) via the regularized incomplete beta function. Additionally, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the relative savings in ASN as compared to maximal sample size. Moreover, we construct the post-test parameter estimate and studied its sampling properties, including its asymptotic behavior under local-type alternatives. These limiting behavior results are the consistency and asymptotic normality of the post-test parameter estimator. We conclude the paper with a small simulation study illustrating the asymptotic performance of the point and interval estimation and provide a detailed example, based on COVID-19 side effect data (see Beatty et al. (2021)) of our suggested testing procedure.